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Promoting active transportation modes in school trips

机译:在学校旅行中促进积极的交通方式

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摘要

Urban and transportation planners have put a special focus on students' health and fitness in the past decade, however they struggle to find effective policies to promote walking and biking for school trips. Commuting to school is an opportunity to embed a regular physical activity in students' daily routines and prevent many health issues that are stimulated by physical inactivity during childhood. A three level nested logit model is introduced to explain the motives behind school trip modal selection. Four choice situations, namely walking, driving, school busing, and taking public transit are considered. This study, particularly, underscored the significance of model misspecification in terms of policy outcomes, since multinomial logit models are typically adopted in the literature and have strong and, in many cases, unrealistic assumptions. Elasticity analysis of the MNL model showed an indirect elasticity of vehicle ownership of -0.13 for non-automobile modes, while NL model provides different elasticities of -0.12, -0.20 and -0.08, respectively for public, school bus, and walk modes. This misspecification results in over estimating the reduction in the share of students who walk to school when vehicle ownership increases. Moreover, a wide range of policy-sensitive variables along with their effect magnitude was discussed and compared with the previous studies. The results showed that one percent increase in the probability of walking to school is expected for every 0.04 percent increase in auto travel time, 0.07 percent increase in the normalized-to-income cost of driving, 0.08 percent decrease in vehicle ownership, 0.03 percent increase in distance to public transit, or 2.37 percent decrease in commute distance. Safety was also found to be very influential on active commuting, such that addressing the safety concern of parents is expected to increase propensity of active commuting to school by around 60 percent. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:在过去的十年中,城市和交通规划者特别注重学生的健康和健身,但是他们努力寻找有效的政策来促进步行和骑自行车旅行。通勤上学是将定期进行体育锻炼纳入学生日常活动的机会,并可以防止因儿童时期缺乏运动而引起的许多健康问题。引入了三层嵌套的logit模型来解释学校出行方式选择的动机。考虑了四种选择情况,即步行,开车,校车和乘坐公共交通工具。特别是,这项研究强调了在政策结果方面模型错误指定的重要性,因为多项logit模型通常在文献中采用,并且具有很强的假设,在许多情况下,这些假设不切实际。 MNL模型的弹性分析显示,非汽车模式的车辆拥有权的间接弹性为-0.13,而NL模型分别为公共,校车和步行模式提供了-0.12,-0.20和-0.08的不同弹性。这种错误指定导致过度估计车辆拥有量增加时步行上学的学生比例的减少。此外,讨论了一系列政策敏感变量及其影响程度,并将其与以前的研究进行了比较。结果表明,汽车出行时间每增加0.04%,步行到学校的可能性增加1%,正常驾驶收入成本增加0.07%,车辆拥有量减少0.08%,增加0.03%到公共交通的距离,即通勤距离减少2.37%。还发现安全性对主动通勤有很大的影响,因此解决父母的安全问题有望使主动通勤上学的倾向增加约60%。 (C)2014 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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