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Economic benefits of urban rail projects that improve travel-time reliability: Evidence from Tokyo, Japan

机译：改善旅行时间可靠性的城市轨道交通项目的经济利益：来自日本东京的证据

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This paper presents a case study that evaluates the economic benefits that stem from urban rail projects to improve travel-time reliability. It first examines the departure-time choices of urban rail passengers who face unreliable rail services and analyzes these choices empirically by using data on the reactions of passengers that use the Tokyu Den-en-toshi Line in Japan. A model of commuters' choices is then formulated by using the scheduling approach where their preference toward travel-time reliability is reflected in their departure-time choices. The presented model assumes that an individual maximizes his or her utility on a workday by allocating time to activities and by determining the start time of each activity. It is also assumed that the individual's utility function consists of the following four subutility functions: morning in-home leisure time, rail travel time, the difference between arrival time at the workplace and preferred arrival time at the workplace, and the difference between arrival time at the workplace and the official work start time. To consider variability in travel time, an error component is introduced into the subutility function of rail travel time, for which two types of probability functions are examined: exponential function and censored-normal distribution. The results show that the model with the censored-normal distribution can successfully describe the empirical data. The consumer benefits that stem from improvements in travel-time reliability are then estimated by using the departure-time choice model for these four cases. Finally, the applicability of the proposed method is discussed, particularly in the context of the urban rail network in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area.
机译：本文提供了一个案例研究，评估了城市轨道交通项目改善旅行时间可靠性的经济效益。它首先研究了面临铁路服务不可靠的城市铁路乘客的出发时间选择，并通过使用日本东急电圆本线乘客的反应数据，对这些选择进行了经验分析。然后通过使用调度方法制定通勤者选择模型，其中他们对出行时间可靠性的偏好反映在他们的出行时间选择中。提出的模型假设一个人在一个工作日通过分配时间到活动并确定每个活动的开始时间来最大化其效用。还假定个人的效用函数由以下四个子效用函数组成：上午在家休闲时间，铁路旅行时间，到达工作地点的时间与首选到达工作地点的时间之间的差以及到达时间之间的差在工作场所和正式工作开始时间。为了考虑行进时间的可变性，将误差成分引入到铁路行进时间的效用函数中，针对该函数检查了两种类型的概率函数：指数函数和检查正态分布。结果表明，具有正态检验的模型可以成功地描述经验数据。然后，通过使用这四种情况的出发时间选择模型，可以估算出旅行时间可靠性的改善所带来的消费者利益。最后，讨论了所提出方法的适用性，特别是在东京都市区轨道网的情况下。

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