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Reducing road congestion: a reality check

机译：减少道路拥堵：现实检查

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摘要

For some little while now, transport policy seems to be focused on massive relative increases in public transport ridership and reduction of car use, resulting in a hoped-for reduction in road congestion. Starting with concerns with vehicle emissions as far back as the mid-1980s, and moving now into more of a focus on greenhouse gases and congestion, current transport policies are aimed at reducing two perceived externalities of increasing car use-vehicular emissions and congestion. This paper seeks to check the reality of these policy directions and question whether these are desirable, let alone achievable end states. The paper starts by looking at congestion and questions whether or not it is intrinsically bad. The negative and positive aspects of congestion are explored. The concepts of accessibility and mobility are discussed, particularly in relation to congestion and capacity increases, with the idea of trying to understand better what capacity increases or increasing congestion do to these two measures. The expectation must be that congestion levels are likely to continue to increase into the future, both as a result of increasing population and also increasing real wealth and changes in preferences. This section of the paper concludes that it is within the power of the market place to offset some of the negatives of congestion. In the next section of the paper, the potentials to increase public transport ridership are examined. An illustration is provided of the likely impacts of achieving a doubling in public transport ridership in a hypothetical city. It is found that the effects of such an achievement would be relatively small on the overall congestion of the road system, and that these effects would also be likely to be fairly short-lived. At the same time, the investments that would be necessary in the public transport system are enormous, and there is relatively little likelihood that one could achieve such an increase in ridership within current development patterns. The paper also addresses the potential of congestion pricing or road user charges to impact congestion. It is concluded that charging motorists a politically acceptable amount will probably still not make significant impact on overall system congestion, while the potential for serious impacts on the economy become large if the charges are made sufficiently high or the area covered is made sufficiently large. In the final section of the paper, a number of policy directions are put forward as suggestions for how to deal with the issue of congestion, capacity, and the declining share of market of public transport. These policy directions are not generally the ones that are being pursued today. The issue of congestion pricing is revisited, and a case is made for a kilometrage charge on road users to replace most current licensing schemes.
机译：一段时间以来，交通政策似乎集中在公共交通乘客量的相对大幅度增长和汽车使用量的减少上，从而有望减少道路拥堵。从早在1980年代中期开始就对汽车排放的担忧开始，到现在更多地关注温室气体和交通拥堵，目前的交通政策旨在减少人们普遍认为的增加汽车使用和排放的外部性。本文试图检查这些政策方向的现实性，并质疑这些政策方向是否可取，更不用说可以实现的最终状态了。本文从研究拥堵开始，并质疑拥堵本质上是否有害。探讨了拥塞的消极和积极方面。讨论了可访问性和移动性的概念，特别是关于拥塞和容量增加的想法，并试图更好地了解容量增加或拥塞对这两种措施的影响。必须期望的是，由于人口增加以及实际财富和偏好的变化，拥挤程度在未来可能会继续增加。本文的这一部分得出结论，抵消某些拥堵的负面影响在市场的力量之内。在本文的下一部分中，研究了增加公共交通出行的潜力。提供了一个说明性的例子，说明在一个假设的城市中实现公共交通出行量翻倍的可能影响。人们发现，这种成就对道路系统总体拥堵的影响相对较小，而且这些影响的持续时间也很短。同时，在公共交通系统中的必要投资是巨大的，并且在目前的发展模式下，实现载客量的这种增加的可能性很小。本文还讨论了拥堵定价或道路使用费对拥堵的潜在影响。得出的结论是，向驾车者收取政治上可接受的金额可能仍不会对整个系统的拥堵产生重大影响，而如果将收费提高到足够高或将覆盖范围扩大到足够，则对经济造成严重影响的可能性就很大。在本文的最后部分，针对如何解决交通拥堵，运力和公共交通市场份额下降的问题，提出了一些政策方向的建议。这些政策方向通常不是当今所追求的方向。再次探讨了拥堵收费的问题，并提出了向道路使用者收取公里费的理由，以取代目前的大多数许可计划。

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  • 来源
    《Transport policy》 |2004年第2期|p.117-131|共15页
  • 作者

    Peter R. Stopher;

  • 作者单位

    Transport Planning, Institute of Transport Studies, The University of Sydney, Sydney NSW 2006, Australia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 f;
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