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Active school travel: homogeneity or heterogeneity? That is the question

机译：积极的学校旅游：同质性或异质性？就是那个问题

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摘要

To explain and predict active school travel (AST), most studies have not investigated to what extent considering taste heterogeneity is an important influence on AST share. The main aim of the present study was to evaluate whether considering unobserved taste heterogeneity through mixed logit models - including random coefficient and random coefficient analysis (RCA) - materially improves/influences the AST prediction compared to a simpler model - the multinomial logit (MNL) model. The database comprises 735 valid observations. The results show that, with a 10% increase in perceived walking time to school, the MNL model predicts that the AST share would decrease by 7.8% (from 18.9% to 17.4%) while the RCA model predicts that it would decrease by 8.5% (from 18.9% to 17.3%). Thus, the expected share of AST is overestimated by MNL by one-tenth of a percentage point. Although there might be random taste variations around perceived distance to school, it seems the other important policy-sensitive variables, such as safety perception, homogeneously impacts on the AST share across households with different socioeconomic and built environment characteristics. Our empirical assessment suggests that considering taste heterogeneity does not necessarily improve the accuracy of analysis for the aggregate share of the AST concerning policy-sensitive variables.
机译：为了解释和预测积极的学校旅游（AST），大多数研究尚未调查考虑味道异质性的程度是对AST份额的重要影响。本研究的主要目的是评估通过混合Logit模型考虑不观察到的味觉异质性 - 包括随机系数和随机系数分析（RCA） - 与更简单的模型相比，实质上改善/影响AST预测 - 多项式Lo​​git（MNL）模型。数据库包括735个有效观察。结果表明，在学校的步行时间增加10％，MNL模型预测，AST份额将减少7.8％（从18.9％到17.4％），而RCA模型预测它将减少8.5％ （从18.9％到17.3％）。因此，AST的预期份额由MNL高估了百分比点的十分之一。虽然对学校的感知距离可能有随机的味道变化，但似乎是其他重要的政策敏感变量，如安全性感染，统一地影响来自不同社会经济和建造环境特征的家庭的AST份额。我们的实证评估表明，考虑品味异质性并不一定提高AST关于政策敏感变量的总份额的分析准确性。

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