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Impact of Transit Fare Increase on Ridership and Revenue: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, New York City

机译：过境票价上涨对乘车人和收入的影响：纽约市大都会运输局

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On May 4, 2003, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority's New York City Transit subsidiary (NYCT) raised its subway and bus fares for the first time since discounted and unlimited-ride MetroCards (electronic fare cards) were introduced between July 1997 and January 1999. Before the 2003 fare increase, the agency did not have any experience with either the direct ridership effects of price changes for unlimited-ride passes or the shift of customers when prices of different fare media increased at different rates and customers could shift from one fare medium to another. Partly on the basis of work done by other transit agencies, NYCT developed a spreadsheet model that used direct fare elasticities to estimate absolute ridership loss and used trip diversion rates (similar to cross-elasticities) to estimate the likelihood that passengers would shift from a fare instrument with a larger percentage increase to one with a smaller increase. The actual shift of customers between fare instruments after the fare increase was greater than projected, with the result of a lower than expected systemwide average fare. The negative revenue impact from the lower average fare was mostly offset by a lower than expected ridership decline. The estimated fare elasticities were below the average of historical NYCT fare elasticities and suggest that customers using unlimited-ride passes were less sensitive to fare changes.
机译：自1997年7月至1999年1月推出折扣和无限制乘车MetroCard（电子票价卡）以来，大都会运输局的纽约市公交子公司（NYCT）首次提高了地铁和公共汽车票价。在2003年的票价上涨过程中，该机构没有任何经验，无论是无限制乘车通行证价格变化的直接乘车效应，还是当不同票价媒体的价格以不同比率上涨且客户可能从一种票价介质转向另一个。 NYCT部分地基于其他过境机构的工作，开发了一个电子表格模型，该模型使用直接票价弹性来估算绝对的乘车损失，并使用出行转移率（类似于交叉弹性）来估计乘客从票价中转移的可能性百分比增加的工具变成百分比增加的工具。加价后，客户在票价工具之间的实际转移大于预期，其结果是系统范围内的平均票价低于预期。平均票价下降对收入的负面影响在很大程度上被低于预期的乘客量下降所抵消。估计的票价弹性低于历史NYCT票价弹性的平均值，这表明使用无限制乘车次数的乘客对票价变动较不敏感。

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