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Latent demand for zero-emissions vehicles in Canada (Part 1): Insights from a design space exercise

机译：加拿大对零排放车辆的潜在需求（第1部分）：设计空间研究的见解

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摘要

We explore consumer demand for three types of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs): plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). We assess latent demand, defined as what ZEV sales could be if they were fully available (in a wide variety of makes and models), and if consumers were fully aware of their existence. Using an in-depth, Reflexive Participant approach to data collection, our survey instrument includes two measures of latent demand: a design space exercise and a stated choice experiment. The survey was completed by a representative sample of 2123 new vehicle-buying households in Canada in 2017. Part 1 (this paper) focuses on the design space exercise, which allows consumers to "design" a conventional, hybrid, or ZEV drivetrain, including specific attribute levels. Under higher and lower price conditions, 14% and 21% of respondents (respectively) select a ZEV, with most selecting PHEVs (11% and 12%), followed by BEVs (2.2% and 5.4%), and HFCVs (1.5% and 3.6%). Most respondents who design a PHEV or HFCV as their first choice select a conventional or hybrid vehicle as their second choice, while BEV designers tend to select a PHEV as their second choice. Further, those who select PHEVs and BEVs have higher levels of environmental-oriented lifestyle engagement and altruistic values, whereas respondents who select HFCVs score lower for both constructs. Results provide one measure of latent demand, while also indicating heterogeneity in demand and motivations. In Part 2 (Kormos et al., this issue), we summarize and compare results from a stated choice experiment.
机译：我们探讨了消费者对三种零排放汽车（ZEV）的需求：插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV），电池电动汽车（BEV）和氢燃料电池汽车（HFCV）。我们评估潜在需求，即潜在需求量（ZEV）的销售量（如果有各种品牌和型号，则完全可用）以及消费者是否完全意识到其存在将是什么。我们的调查工具使用深入的，反思性参与者的方法来收集数据，其中包括两项潜在需求量度：设计空间练习和明确选择实验。该调查是由2017年加拿大2123个新购车家庭的代表性样本完成的。第1部分（本文）着重于设计空间练习，该练习使消费者可以“设计”常规，混合动力或ZEV动力传动系统。 ，包括特定的属性级别。在较高和较低的价格条件下，分别有14％和21％的受访者选择零排放汽车，其中大多数选择的是PHEV（分别为11％和12％），其次是BEV（分别为2.2％和5.4％）和HFCV（分别为1.5％和3.6％）。大多数将PHEV或HFCV设计为第一选择的受访者将传统或混合动力汽车作为第二选择，而BEV设计者则倾向于选择PHEV作为第二选择。此外，选择PHEV和BEV的人具有较高水平的面向环境的生活方式参与度和利他价值，而选择HFCV的受访者在两种结构中得分都较低。结果提供了潜在需求的一种度量，同时也表明了需求和动机的异质性。在第2部分（Kormos等，本期）中，我们总结并比较了所述选择实验的结果。

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