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Latent demand for zero-emissions vehicles in Canada (Part 2): Insights from a stated choice experiment

机译：加拿大零排放车辆的潜在需求（第2部分）：既定选择实验的见解

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This is Part 2 of a two-part study that explores latent demand for three types of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs): plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). Using an in-depth, Reflexive Participant approach to data collection, our survey instrument includes two measures of latent demand implemented with a representative sample of 2123 new vehicle-buying households in Canada in 2017. While Part 1 (Long et al., this issue) reports on a design space exercise, here we summarize results from a stated choice experiment, using a latent class choice model to quantify respondent preferences and motivations, and the heterogeneity therein. We identify five unique respondent classes (or segments) that largely differ by their preferred drivetrain, only three of which demonstrate significant interest in ZEVs: PEV-enthusiast (representing 13% of the sample), PHEV-oriented (22%), and ZEV-neutral (21%). Respondents in all three classes tend to have higher levels of environmental concern or engagement in an environment-oriented lifestyle. All classes significantly value purchase price and incentives, but vary widely in valuation of fuel savings, charging access, and refueling access - with little overall valuation of driving range and public charging access. We calculate conditional choice probabilities as estimates of ZEV latent demand, which is equivalent to 29% of new market share under base conditions, and significantly increases to a high of 49% with purchase incentives and widespread charger deployment. Our discussion compares insights provided by the two stated response approaches to latent demand (in Parts 1 and 2), making a case for overall complementarity.
机译：这是由两部分组成的研究的第2部分，该研究探讨了对三种零排放汽车（ZEV）的潜在需求：插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV），电池电动汽车（BEV）和氢燃料电池汽车（HFCV） ）。我们的调查工具使用深入的，反思性参与者的方法来收集数据，其中包括两项潜在需求量度，并于2017年对加拿大2123个新的购车家庭进行了代表性抽样。第一部分（Long等人，本期）关于设计空间练习的报告，在这里我们总结了一个陈述性选择实验的结果，使用潜在的类选择模型来量化受访者的偏好和动机以及其中的异质性。我们确定了五种独特的受访者类别（或细分市场），它们在偏好的动力传动系统上有很大差异，其中只有三项表现出对零排放汽车的浓厚兴趣：PEV爱好者（占样本的13％），面向PHEV的汽车（占22％）和ZEV -中立（21％）。在所有三个类别中，受访者对环境的关注程度或对环境的生活方式的参与程度较高。所有级别的汽车都显着重视购买价格和激励措施，但是在节油，充电和加油的评估上差异很大，而对行驶里程和公共充电的总体评估却很少。我们以ZEV潜在需求的估算值来计算条件选择概率，这相当于基本条件下新市场份额的29％，并且随着购买动机和广泛的充电器部署，显着增加到49％的高位。我们的讨论比较了两种针对潜在需求的既定应对方法所提供的见解（在第1部分和第2部分中），从而为整体互补提供了理由。

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