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Analysis of child pick-up during daily routines and for daytime no-notice evacuations

机译：分析日常例行和白天无人注意疏散中的儿童接送

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摘要

In a no-notice disaster (e.g., nuclear explosion, terrorist attack, or hazardous materials release), an evacuation may start immediately after the disaster strikes. When a no-notice evacuation occurs during the daytime, household members are scattered throughout the regional network, and some family members (e.g., children) may need to be picked up. This household pick-up and gathering behavior was seldom investigated in previous work due to insufficient data; this gap in our understanding about who within families handles child-gathering is addressed here. Three hundred fifteen interviews were conducted in the Chicago metropolitan area to ascertain how respondents planned their response to hypothetical no-notice emergency evacuation orders. This paper presents the influencing factors that affect household pick-up and gathering behavior/expectations and the logistic regression models developed to predict the probability that parents pick up a child in three situations: a normal weekday and two hypothetical emergency scenarios. The results showed that both mothers and fathers were more likely to pick up a child under emergency conditions than they were on a normal weekday. For a normal weekday, increasing the distance between parents and children decreased the probability of parents picking up children; in other words, the farther parents are from their children, the less likely they will pick them up. In an emergency, effects of distance on pick-up behavior were significant for women, but not significant for men; that is, increasing the distance between parents and children decreased the probability that mothers pick up a child, but had a less significant effect on the fathers' probability. Another significant factor affecting child pick-up behavior/expectations was household income when controlling for distance. The results of this study confirm that parents expect to gather children under emergency conditions, which needs to be accounted for in evacuation planning; failure to do so could cause difficulties in executing the pick-ups, lead to considerable queuing and rerouting, and extend the time citizens are exposed to high levels of risk.
机译：在无人注意的灾难（例如核爆炸，恐怖袭击或危险材料释放）中，灾难发生后可能立即开始疏散。当白天无人注意疏散时，家庭成员分散在整个区域网络中，可能需要接送一些家庭成员（例如，孩子）。由于数据不足，很少在以前的工作中调查这种家庭收集和收集行为。这里解决了我们对家庭成员由谁负责收集问题的理解上的差距。在芝加哥市区进行了315次采访，以确定受访者如何计划他们对假设的无通知紧急疏散命令的响应。本文介绍了影响家庭收养和收集行为/期望的影响因素，并开发了逻辑回归模型来预测父母在以下三种情况下接孩子的概率：正常工作日和两种假设的紧急情况。结果显示，在正常情况下，父母和父亲在紧急情况下接生的可能性均高于正常工作日。在正常的工作日中，父母与孩子之间的距离增加会降低父母接孩子的可能性；换句话说，父母离孩子越远，他们接孩子的可能性就越小。在紧急情况下，距离对接物行为的影响对女性影响很大，而对男性影响不大；也就是说，增加父母与孩子之间的距离可以降低母亲抱抱孩子的可能性，但对父亲的可能性影响较小。影响儿童接送行为/期望的另一个重要因素是控制距离时的家庭收入。这项研究的结果证实，父母希望在紧急情况下能收养孩子，这在疏散计划中应予以考虑；否则可能会导致接机困难，导致排队和重路由，并延长了公民面临高风险的时间。

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