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Modeling evacuation demand during no-notice emergency events: Tour formation behavior

机译：在无通知紧急事件期间建模疏散需求：旅游形成行为

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摘要

Disastrous events have been drastically increasing - both in frequency and destructive capacity - over the past few years. While advance-notice events have received a great deal of attention in the literature of disaster management, not much attention so far has been given to the no-notice events mainly because of the scarcity of data. As an attempt to address this critical gap, the current study proposes a disaggregate evacuation demand framework to understand evacuees' travel behavior in case of no-notice emergency events. The proposed framework comprises four main steps of evacuation decision, evacuation planning, tour formation, and activity schedule update. This article is dedicated to the introduction of the framework structure and elaboration on the tour formation step. In this step, we first estimate the total number of intermediate stops, travel time, and distance of the evacuation tours for those who decide to evacuate through a joint modeling structure and then, determine the type of each intermediate stop (if any). It is found that a broad range of factors including evacuees' demographic profiles, built-environment attributes, and characteristics of the disastrous event plays a significant role in people's evacuation behavior during no-notice emergency events. The findings of this study can assist responsible agencies in understanding evacuees' complex behavior, and consequently, in devising effective strategies to alleviate economic damages and casualties resulted by such events.
机译：灾难性的事件急剧增加 - 既有频率和破坏性能力 - 在过去几年中。虽然预先通知事件在灾害管理文献中得到了大量的关注，但到目前为止，迄今为止没有大量关注的关注事件主要是因为数据的稀缺性。作为解决这一关键差距的尝试，目前的研究提出了一个分解疏散需求框架，以了解疏散的行为行为，以便在没有通知的紧急事件的情况下。拟议的框架包括四个疏散决策，疏散计划，旅游形成和活动日程更新的主要步骤。本文致力于引入框架结构和在旅游形成步骤的阐述。在这一步骤中，我们首先估计疏散游览的中间止损，旅行时间和距离的总数，为那些通过联合建模结构撤离的人，然后确定每个中间止动件（如果有的话）的类型。有人发现，广泛的因素包括疏散人口概况，内置环境属性，灾难性事件的特征在人们在没有通知的紧急事件期间在人们的疏散行为中起着重要作用。本研究的调查结果可以协助负责任的机构在理解撤离者的复杂行为方面，因此，在制定有效的战略方面，以减轻这些事件的经济损害和伤亡的伤亡。

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