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An agent-based choice model for travel mode and departure time and its case study in Beijing

机译：基于Agent的出行方式和出发时间选择模型及其在北京的案例研究

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摘要

Aiming to alleviate traffic jams, many traffic management strategies/policies are adopted to nudge travelers to re-arrange their departure time or switch from driving to public transit or non-motorized mode. Analytical travel behavior model is needed to predict travelers' departure time choice and mode switch under such strategies. In this paper, we developed an agent-based model for travellers' choices of mode and departure time. Departing from the traditional utility maximization theory, this model focuses on the decision-making process based on imperfect information, bounded and distinctive rationalities. In the modeling framework, travelers accumulate experiences and update their spatial and temporal knowledge through a Bayesian learning process. Before making a trip, travelers decide whether to search for alternative departure time and/or travel mode according to their expected search gain and cost. When an additional search happens, travelers decide whether or not to switch to the new departure time and travel mode according to a series of decision conditions. Both the search and decision processes are represented by production (if-then) rules derived from a joint revealed/stated-preference survey data collected in Beijing. Then the agent-based model is applied to evaluate congestion charge policies with various demand scenarios in the 2nd ring road of Beijing. Results suggest that the model can display the peak spreading and mode switch process practically. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：为了减轻交通拥堵，采取了许多交通管理策略/政策来促使旅客重新安排出发时间或从驾驶方式切换为公共交通方式或非机动方式。在这种策略下，需要分析旅行行为模型来预测旅行者的出发时间选择和模式切换。在本文中，我们针对旅行者的方式和出发时间选择开发了基于代理的模型。与传统的效用最大化理论不同，该模型着重于基于不完全信息，有限理性和独特理性的决策过程。在建模框架中，旅行者通过贝叶斯学习过程积累经验并更新他们的时空知识。在旅行之前，旅行者会根据他们的预期搜索收益和成本来决定是否搜索其他出发时间和/或旅行方式。发生其他搜索时，旅行者会根据一系列决策条件来决定是否切换到新的出发时间和出行方式。搜索和决策过程均由从北京收集的公开/陈述-偏好调查数据得出的生产（如果-则是）规则代表。然后，将基于代理的模型用于评估北京二环路各种需求情景下的拥堵收费政策。结果表明该模型可以实际显示峰值扩展和模式切换过程。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation research》 |2016年第3期|133-147|共15页
  • 作者

    Zou Mingqiao; Li Meng; Lin Xi; Xiong Chenfeng; Mao Chao; Wan Cheng; Zhang Ke; Yu Jiaying;

  • 作者单位

    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Civil Engn, 203A Shanheng He Bldg, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Civil Engn, 315 Shanheng He Bldg, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Civil Engn, 203A Shanheng He Bldg, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Univ Maryland, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 1173 Glenn Martin Hall, College Pk, MD 20742 USA;

    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Civil Engn, 203A Shanheng He Bldg, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Civil Engn, 203A Shanheng He Bldg, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Civil Engn, 203A Shanheng He Bldg, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Civil Engn, 203A Shanheng He Bldg, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Agent-based model; Mode choice; Departure time choice; Travel behavior;

    机译：基于Agent的模型;模式选择;出发时间选择;出行行为;

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