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首页> 外文期刊>Tropical Animal Health and Production >Participatory probabilistic assessment of the risk to human health associated with cryptosporidiosis from urban dairying in Dagoretti, Nairobi, Kenya
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Participatory probabilistic assessment of the risk to human health associated with cryptosporidiosis from urban dairying in Dagoretti, Nairobi, Kenya

机译：肯尼亚内罗毕达戈雷蒂市城市奶牛场与隐孢子虫病相关的人类健康风险的参与性概率评估

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We carried out a participatory risk assessment to estimate the risk (negative consequences and their likelihood) from zoonotic Cryptosporidium originating in dairy farms in urban Dagoretti, Nairobi to dairy farm households and their neighbours. We selected 20 households at high risk for Cryptosporidium from a larger sample of 300 dairy households in Dagoretti based on risk factors present. We then conducted a participatory mapping of the flow of the hazard from its origin (cattle) to human potential victims. This showed three main exposure pathways (food and water borne, occupational and recreational). This was used to develop a fault tree model which we parameterised using information from the study and literature. A stochastic simulation was used to estimate the probability of exposure to zoonotic cryptosporidiosis originating from urban dairying. Around 6 % of environmental samples were positive for Cryptosporidium. Probability of exposure to Cryptosporidium from dairy cattle ranged from 0.0055 for people with clinical acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in non-dairy households to 0.0102 for children under 5 years from dairy households. Most of the estimated health burden was born by children. Although dairy cattle are the source of Cryptosporidium, the model suggests consumption of vegetables is a greater source of risk than consumption of milk. In conclusion, by combining participatory methods with quantitative microbial risk assessment, we were able to rapidly, and with appropriate ‘imprecision’, investigate health risk to communities from Cryptosporidium and identify the most vulnerable groups and the most risky practices.
机译：我们进行了一项参与性风险评估，以评估源自内罗毕达格里蒂市区奶牛场的人畜共患隐孢子虫对奶牛场家庭及其邻居的风险（负面后果及其可能性）。根据存在的风险因素，我们从Dagoretti的300个奶牛家庭的较大样本中选择了20个隐孢子虫高风险家庭。然后，我们对危害的来源（牛）到人类潜在受害者进行了参与性映射。这表明了三种主要的接触途径（食物和水，职业和娱乐途径）。这被用于开发故障树模型，我们使用研究和文献中的信息对其进行参数化。随机模拟被用来估计暴露于城市奶业的人畜共患隐孢子虫病的可能性。大约6％的环境样品中隐孢子虫呈阳性。奶牛暴露于隐孢子虫的可能性范围从非奶牛家庭中临床上获得性免疫缺陷综合症患者的0.0055到乳牛家庭中5岁以下儿童的0.0102。估计的健康负担大部分是由孩子承担的。尽管奶牛是隐孢子虫的来源，但该模型表明，食用蔬菜比食用牛奶是更大的风险来源。总之，通过将参与性方法与定量微生物风险评估相结合，我们能够快速且适当地进行“不精密度”调查隐孢子虫对社区的健康风险，并确定最脆弱的人群和最具风险的做法。

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