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Hydropolitical Self-Organization theory; system dynamics to analyse hydropolitics of Helmand transboundary river

机译：水政治自组织理论；系统动力学分析赫尔曼德河跨境河水政治

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摘要

The paper is based on the hydropolitical driver concept and analyses non-technological drivers responsible for the depletion of water resources determining the hydropolitical situation over time. To tackle the complexity stemming from the heterogeneity of drivers, the paper adopts both theoretical hydropolitics (hydropolitical driver concept) and system dynamics (SD) (causal loop diagrams tool) to map a mature self-organization mechanism in the Helmand transboundary river watershed gradually stemming from five known hydropolitical drivers' activity through history. The drivers are described according to two important historical phases. In this regard the authors introduce 'primary', 'third party', 'national', 'regional' and 'state building' drivers into the transboundary basin in order to define a mature system mechanism, called a 'Hydropolitical Self-Organization (HSO)' mechanism in the paper. In parallel with explaining the drivers, the corresponding five stages of the derived HSO are to be analysed. Also, to underpin the drivers and derived system mechanism activities, the paper adopts related theories, statistical data and historical documents. However, the mature self-organization mechanism including all drivers led to derivation of three perspectives of various hydropolitical scenarios in the future both within and between the two neighbouring countries as well as suggesting four system policy options relying on the SD principles to check unintended outcomes of the self-organization mechanism.
机译：本文基于水政治驱动因素的概念，分析了随着时间的流逝决定水资源消耗的非技术驱动因素。为了解决驱动程序异质性带来的复杂性，本文采用了理论水政治学（hydropolitical driver concept）和系统动力学（SD）（因果圈图工具）来绘制逐步形成的赫尔曼德跨界河流域中成熟的自组织机制。从五个已知的水政治驱动程序的活动到历史。根据两个重要的历史阶段对驱动程序进行了描述。在这方面，作者将“主要”，“第三方”，“国家”，“区域”和“国家建设”驱动因素引入越境盆地，以定义成熟的系统机制，称为“政治自我组织”（HSO） ）的机制。在解释驱动程序的同时，将分析导出的HSO的相应五个阶段。此外，为支持驱动程序和派生的系统机制活动，本文采用了相关的理论，统计数据和历史文献。但是，包括所有驱动因素在内的成熟的自组织机制导致了在未来两个邻国内部和之间的各种水政治情景的三种观点的推导，并提出了四个基于可持续发展原则的系统政策选择，以检查非预期的结果。自组织机制。

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