...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Water Policy >Implications of climate change for water resources development in the Ganges basin
【24h】

Implications of climate change for water resources development in the Ganges basin

机译：气候变化对恒河盆地水资源开发的影响

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This paper presents the first basin-wide assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken as part of the World Bank's Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment. A series of modeling efforts - downscaling of climate projections, water balance calculations, hydrological simulation and economic optimization - inform the assessment. We find that projections of precipitation across the basin, obtained from 16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-recognized General Circulation Models are highly variable, and lead to considerable differences in predictions of mean flows in the main stem of the Ganges and its tributaries. Despite uncertainties in predicted future flows, they are not, however, outside the range of natural variability in this basin, except perhaps at the tributary or sub-catchment levels. We also find that the hydropower potential associated with a set of 23 large dams in Nepal remains high across climate models, largely because annual flow in the tributary rivers greatly exceeds the storage capacities of these projects even in dry scenarios. The additional storage and smoothing of flows provided by these infrastructures translates into enhanced water availability in the dry season, but the relative value of this water for the purposes of irrigation in the Gangetic plain, and for low flow augmentation to Bangladesh under climate change, is unclear.
机译：本文作为世界银行恒河战略流域评估的一部分，对流域范围内的气候变化对恒河系统的水文学和生产的潜在影响进行了首次评估。一系列建模工作-缩减气候预测，水平衡计算，水文模拟和经济优化-有助于评估。我们发现，从16个政府间气候变化专门委员会公认的一般环流模型获得的整个盆地的降水预测变化很大，并且导致恒河及其支流主干的平均流量预测存在很大差异。尽管预测的未来流量存在不确定性，但是除了支流或子汇水位以外，它们都不会超出该盆地的自然变化范围。我们还发现，在整个气候模式下，与尼泊尔的23座大型水坝相关的水电潜力仍然很高，这主要是因为即使在干旱的情况下，支流的年流量也大大超过了这些项目的蓄水能力。这些基础设施所提供的额外的存储和流量平整转化为干旱季节的可用水量增加，但对于恒河平原灌溉目的和气候变化下向孟加拉国的低流量增加，这种水的相对价值是不清楚。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号