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Dry season streamflow persistence in seasonal climates

机译：季节性气候中的旱季水流持续存在

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Seasonally dry ecosystems exhibit periods of high water availability followed by extended intervals during which rainfall is negligible and streamflows decline. Eventually, such declining flows will fall below the minimum values required to support ecosystem functions or services. The time at which dry season flows drop below these minimum values (Q*), relative to the start of the dry season, is termed the "persistence time'' (T-Q*). The persistence time determines how long seasonal streams can support various human or ecological functions during the dry season. In this study, we extended recent work in the stochastic hydrology of seasonally dry climates to develop an analytical model for the probability distribution function (PDF) of the persistence time. The proposed model accurately captures the mean of the persistence time distribution, but underestimates its variance. We demonstrate that this underestimation arises in part due to correlation between the parameters used to describe the dry season recession, but that this correlation can be removed by rescaling the flow variables. The mean persistence time predictions form one example of the broader class of streamflow statistics known as crossing properties, which could feasibly be combined with simple ecological models to form a basis for rapid risk assessment under different climate or management scenarios.
机译：季节性干燥的生态系统表现出高水可利用的时期，随后是延长的时间间隔，在此期间降雨可忽略不计，溪流减少。最终，这种下降的流量将低于支持生态系统功能或服务所需的最小值。相对于旱季开始时，旱季流量下降到这些最小值（Q *）以下的时间称为“持续时间”（TQ *）。持续时间决定了季节性河流可以支撑各种气候的时间干旱季节的人类或生态功能。在这项研究中，我们扩展了季节性干旱气候随机水文学的最新工作，以开发持续时间概率分布函数（PDF）的分析模型，该模型可以准确地捕获均值我们证明了这种低估的部分原因是用于描述旱季衰退的参数之间的相关性，但可以通过重新调整流量变量来消除这种相关性。预测形成了被称为穿越属性的更广泛的流量统计的一个例子，可以与简单的生态学方法相结合建立模型，为在不同气候或管理情景下进行快速风险评估奠定基础。

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  • 来源
    《Water resources research》 |2016年第1期|90-107|共18页
  • 作者

    Dralle David N.; Karst Nathaniel J.; Thompson Sally E.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA;

    Babson Coll, Div Math, Wellesley, MA USA|Babson Coll, Div Sci, Wellesley, MA USA;

    Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA;

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