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首页> 外文期刊>The World Economy >Putting Canada in the penalty box: Trade and welfare effects of eliminating North American Free Trade Agreement
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Putting Canada in the penalty box: Trade and welfare effects of eliminating North American Free Trade Agreement

机译：将加拿大置于惩罚框：消除北美自由贸易协定的贸易和福利影响

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摘要

Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs). In 2016, "Brexit" was passed in a UK referendum. Moreover, in 2019, the existence of the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is at risk if the US withdraws-a threat President Trump has made if the proposed US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is not passed by the US Congress. We use state-of-the-art econometric methodology to estimate the partial (average treatment) effects on international trade flows of the six major types of EIAs. Armed with precise estimates of the average treatment effect for a free trade agreement, we examine the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the elimination of NAFTA (and for robustness US withdrawal only). Although all the member countries' standards of living fall, surprisingly the smallest economy, Mexico, is not the biggest loser; Canada is the biggest loser. Canada's welfare (per capita income) loss of 2.11% is nearly two times that of Mexico's loss of 1.15% and is nearly eight times the US' loss of 0.27%. The simulations will illustrate the important influence of trade costs-international and intranational-in contributing to the gains (or losses) from an EIA's formation (or elimination).
机译：三年前，很少有经济学家会想到，国际贸易中最新，发展最快的研究领域之一是使用量化贸易模型来估算主要国家经济一体化协议解散后的经济福利损失。 2016年，英国脱欧公投通过了“英国脱欧”。此外，在2019年，如果美国退出，整个北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）的存在将面临风险-如果美国国会未通过拟议的《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》，特朗普总统将构成威胁。我们使用最新的计量经济学方法来估算六种主要类型的EIA对国际贸易流量的部分（平均处理）影响。凭借对自由贸易协定的平均待遇效果的精确估计，我们研究了消除NAFTA的一般均衡贸易和福利效果（仅出于稳健性，美国撤军）。尽管所有成员国的生活水平都在下降，但令人惊讶的是，最小的经济体墨西哥并不是最大的损失者；加拿大是最大的输家。加拿大的福利（人均收入）损失为2.11％，几乎是墨西哥损失1.15％的两倍，是美国损失0.27％的八倍。这些模拟将说明贸易成本（国际和国际内部）对EIA形成（或消除）的收益（或损失）的重要影响。

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  • 来源
    《The World Economy》 |2019年第12期|3488-3514|共27页
  • 作者

    Baier Scott L.; Bergstrand Jeffrey H.; Bruno John P.;

  • 作者单位

    Clemson Univ John E Walker Dept Econ Clemson SC 29634 USA|Mercatus Ctr Arlington VA 22201 USA;

    Univ Notre Dame Mendoza Coll Business Dept Finance Notre Dame IN 46556 USA|Univ Notre Dame Dept Econ Notre Dame IN 46556 USA|Univ Notre Dame Helen Kellogg Inst Int Studies Keough Sch Global Affairs Notre Dame IN 46556 USA|CESifo Munich Germany;

    Univ Notre Dame Dept Econ Notre Dame IN 46556 USA|Cornerstone Res Chicago IL USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    economic integration agreements; gravity equations; international trade;

    机译：经济一体化协议;重力方程国际贸易;

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