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The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Suddenly a 'Game Changer'

机译：跨太平洋伙伴关系：突然成为“游戏规则改变者”

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Prior to 2012, the TPP was destined to be little more than a failed agreement. Dominated by one country, the expected economic gains were small and potential for extending advances in rulemaking beyond the TPP fair at best. The entry of Canada, Mexico and most importantly Japan to the TPP negotiations has changed not only the negotiating dynamic but also the significance of the agreement both in the short and long term. The TPP is now an economically meaningful agreement and the rulemaking innovations coming out of the TPP will likely be spread not only through subsequent FTAs but even be multilateralised sometime in the future. Perhaps as significantly, the TPP offers Japan an opportunity to engage in meaningful structural reform of its moribund economy, benefiting itself as well as its trading partners. On the other hand, the new entrants bring risks. Domestic political pressure in Japan is strong, and support for Prime Minister Abe and his radical plan to reshape Japan's economy is precarious. Well-intentioned negotiating positions could easily give way in the face of strong and persistent domestic lobbying. Likewise, Canadian and Mexican goods already enjoy privileged status in the USA, and there is a real risk their negotiating imperative will be to protect current advantages rather than support deep and meaningful liberalisation. Finally, the US Congress could always scuttle the deal by failing to approve the agreement, a threat more likely since President Obama does not have and has not requested trade promotion authority (TPA). Having missed a self-imposed and unrealistic deadline of the end of 2013 to conclude the negotiations, it is extremely unlikely that the Obama administration will risk electoral backlash by concluding the negotiations prior to the US mid-term elections in November 2014. It is questionable whether they will be able to conclude before mid-2015. The 'low hanging fruit' may be concluded some time ago, but serious issues remain, and the addition of three important countries has certainly extended the negotiating time frame. This extended time frame is not entirely problematic, but if negotiations linger past mid-2015 questions will begin to be raised and some will (incorrectly) see the TPP heading the way of the Doha Round of WTO negotiations. If this occurs and partner countries feel it is important to quickly conclude the negotiations, substantive and political reasons may begin to burden the negotiations. The TPP could yet become a watered-down agreement providing minimal economic benefits, but evidence to date shows it also has the potential to be a game changer in a number of ways.
机译：TPP在2012年之前注定只不过是一项失败的协议。在一个国家的控制下，预期的经济收益很小，并且有潜力将规则制定的进展扩展到TPP展览会之外。加拿大，墨西哥，最重要的是日本加入TPP谈判，不仅改变了谈判的动力，而且改变了该协定的短期和长期意义。 TPP现在是一项具有经济意义的协议，TPP产生的规则制定创新可能不仅会通过后续的FTA进行传播，而且甚至会在将来的某个时候被多边化。也许同样重要的是，TPP为日本提供了一个机会，可以对其垂死的经济进行有意义的结构改革，从而使自己和贸易伙伴受益。另一方面，新进入者带来风险。日本国内的政治压力很大，对安倍首相及其重塑日本经济的根本计划的支持support可危。面对强大而持久的国内游说，善意的谈判立场很容易让位。同样，加拿大和墨西哥商品已经在美国享有特权地位，它们进行谈判的真正风险是必须保护当前的优势，而不是支持深入而有意义的自由化。最后，美国国会总是可以通过不批准该协议来破坏协议，这是一种威胁，因为奥巴马总统没有也没有要求贸易促进授权（TPA）。由于错过了结束谈判的2013年末自我设定和不切实际的截止日期，因此奥巴马政府极不可能在2014年11月美国中期选举之前结束谈判，从而冒着选举反弹的风险。这令人怀疑他们是否能够在2015年年中之前得出结论。 “悬而未决的结果”可能会在一段时间之前结束，但是仍然存在严重的问题，三个重要国家的加入无疑延长了谈判的时限。延长期限并不完全是问题，但如果谈判拖延至2015年年中以后，就会开始提出问题，有些人（会错误地）认为TPP会朝着WTO多哈回合谈判的方向前进。如果发生这种情况，并且伙伴国家认为迅速结束谈判很重要，那么实质性和政治原因可能会开始使谈判负担。 TPP可能会成为一项缩水协议，只提供最小的经济利益，但是迄今为止的证据表明，TPP也有可能以多种方式改变游戏规则。

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  • 来源
    《The World Economy》 |2014年第11期|1558-1574|共17页
  • 作者

    Bryan Mercurio;

  • 作者单位

    Faculty of Law, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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