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首页> 外文期刊>Preventive Medicine: An International Journal Devoted to Practice and Theory >On causation in therapeutic research: observational studies, randomised experiments and instrumental variable analysis.
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On causation in therapeutic research: observational studies, randomised experiments and instrumental variable analysis.

机译：关于治疗研究中的因果关系：观察性研究，随机实验和仪器变量分析。

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摘要

The counterfactual theory defines a conceptual framework for judging causation of therapeutic interventions. The main assumption underlying the claim that a counterfactual statement holds is that compared groups are exchangeable. In observational studies for therapeutic effects causal claims are hard to justify because the lack of exchangeability between compared groups. Randomised studies have a rather straightforward causal interpretation, based on the randomisation procedure that leads to expected exchangeability between compared groups. The use of instrumental variables can theoretically overcome the problems adherent to observational data, at least to a certain extent. The general idea of instrumental variables is to mimic a randomised trial, by searching for a variable that determines the probability of exposure (treatment) but that is not in other ways associated with the outcome under study. The assumptions for causal claims in IV analyses are strong, but the alternative of avoiding causal statements based on observational data, is less appealing.
机译：反事实理论为判断治疗干预的因果关系定义了概念框架。反事实陈述成立的主张的主要假设是，被比较的组是可交换的。在观察性研究中，由于治疗组之间缺乏可交换性，因此很难证明因果关系是合理的。基于导致比较组之间预期互换性的随机化程序，随机研究具有相当简单的因果解释。仪器变量的使用可以在理论上至少在一定程度上克服观测数据所存在的问题。工具变量的一般思想是通过寻找一个确定暴露（治疗）可能性的变量，而不是与研究结果相关的其他方式，来模仿随机试验。 IV分析中因果关系主张的假设很强，但是避免基于观测数据的因果关系陈述的替代方法吸引力较小。

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