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首页> 外文期刊>Preventive Medicine: An International Journal Devoted to Practice and Theory >Influenza H3N2 variant viruses with pandemic potential: Preventing catastrophe in remote and isolated Canadian communities
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Influenza H3N2 variant viruses with pandemic potential: Preventing catastrophe in remote and isolated Canadian communities

机译：具有大流行潜力的H3N2流感变异病毒：预防偏远偏远加拿大社区的灾难

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Objective: To evaluate the impact of age-specific cross-reactive antibody protection levels on the outcomes of a pandemic outbreak of new variants of H3N2 influenza A viruses (H3N2v). Methods: We calibrated a previously validated agent-based model of human-to-human transmission of influenza viruses to project the outcomes of various protection levels in a remote and isolated Canadian community, when demographics are drawn from the Statistics Canada census data. We then compared the outcomes with a scenario in which demographic variables were shifted to resemble an urban structure. This comparative evaluation was conducted using in-silico computer simulations, where the epidemiological data were drawn from relevant estimates in published literature. Results: Simulations, using estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain in the study population, show that the epidemic size is primarily affected by the cross-reactive protection levels of young children. A lower number of secondary infections at the early stages of an outbreak does not necessarily correspond to a lower epidemic size. Conclusions: Demographic variables could play a significant role in determining the outcomes of an outbreak. The findings strongly suggest that, when an H3N2v-specific vaccine becomes available, children below the age of 17 should be prioritized for vaccination. This prioritization is essential in population settings with a low average age, including aboriginal communities in northern latitudes.
机译：目的：评估特定年龄的交叉反应抗体保护水平对H3N2甲型流感病毒新变种（H3N2v）大流行爆发的影响。方法：当从加拿大统计局的人口统计数据中提取人口统计数据时，我们校准了先前验证的基于人与人之间的流感病毒人与人传播模型，以预测偏远和孤立的加拿大社区中各种保护水平的结果。然后，我们将结果与人口变量转移到类似于城市结构的情况进行了比较。该比较评估是使用计算机模拟计算机进行的，其中流行病学数据来自已发表文献中的相关估计值。结果：使用研究人群中2009 H1N1大流行毒株的传播能力估计，模拟显示，流行的规模主要受幼儿的交叉反应保护水平影响。在爆发的早期，较少的继发感染数量不一定对应较低的流行病规模。结论：人口统计学变量可能在确定暴发后果方面起重要作用。这些发现强烈表明，当可获得H3N2v特异性疫苗时，应优先考虑17岁以下的儿童进行疫苗接种。在低平均年龄的人群中，包括在北纬的原住民社区中，这种优先次序至关重要。

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