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Frequentist accuracy of Bayesian estimates

机译:贝叶斯估计的频率准确性

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Of late, the Bayesian approach is being widely used in many applications especially when the priors are either neutral or uninformative. Many Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are developed to solve the estimation problems related to this. In the absence of relevant prior, an uninformative prior is assigned and the parameter of interest is estimated. The interest then is to know the accuracy of the estimate. This paper proposes frequentist accuracy for the Bayesian estimate of the parameter. The estimate is considered as a function of the data and its frequentist variability is computed. The main result of this study is a general accuracy formula for the delta method standard deviation of the estimated parameter that can be applied to all prior distributions. Even in complicated situations the formula is computationally inexpensive. The MCMC calculations that give the Bayes estimate also provide its frequentist standard deviation. Many of the examples will demonstrate near equality between Bayesian and frequentist standard deviations. However a class of reasonable examples where the frequentist accuracy can be less than half of its Bayesian counterpart are also provided. The general accuracy formula takes on a particularly simple form from the exponential family. Exponential family structure also allows substituting parametric bootstrap sampling for MCMC calculations, at least for uninformative priors. This has computational advantages that it helps to connect Bayesian inference with the bootstrap approach. (27 refs.)
机译:最近,贝叶斯方法被广泛用于许多应用程序中,尤其是当先验是中性的或无信息的时。开发了许多马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)算法来解决与此相关的估计问题。在不存在相关先验的情况下,分配无信息的先验并估计感兴趣的参数。然后的兴趣是知道估计的准确性。本文提出了贝叶斯参数估计的常识精度。估计值被视为数据的函数,并计算其频繁性差异。这项研究的主要结果是可用于所有先前分布的估计参数的增量法标准偏差的通用精度公式。即使在复杂的情况下,该公式在计算上也不昂贵。给出贝叶斯估计值的MCMC计算也提供了其频繁使用的标准差。许多示例将证明贝叶斯和频偏标准差之间几乎相等。但是,还提供了一类合理的示例,其中频繁出现的准确性可能不到其贝叶斯对应关系的一半。通用精度公式采用指数族的一种特别简单的形式。指数族结构还允许将参数引导程序抽样替换为MCMC计算,至少用于无先验的先验抽样。这具有计算优势,有助于将贝叶斯推理与引导方法联系起来。 (27参考)

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