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首页> 外文期刊>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society >Numerical simulations of the 12-13 August 2002 flooding event in eastern Germany
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Numerical simulations of the 12-13 August 2002 flooding event in eastern Germany

机译：2002年8月12日至13日在德国东部发生的洪水事件的数值模拟

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摘要

In this paper, high-resolution numerical simulations of the 12-13 August 2002 flooding event in eastern Germany are presented. The simulations are performed with the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 in a four-domain configuration with a finest horizontal resolution of 1 km. Sensitivity experiments are performed with coarser resolutions (3 and 9 km), with different cloud microphysical parametrizations and with a different date of initialization Moreover, tests with 1 km resolution but the smoothed topography of the 9 km runs are conducted in order to isolate the contribution of the model topography to the differences between the 1 km runs and the 9 km runs. The results show that the high-resolution runs reproduce the observed structure of the precipitation field very well. In particular, the location of the rainfall maximum is correct to within 15 km. The quantitative agreement between model results and observations is fairly good in regions with light to modeiate rain, but large amounts of precipitation tend to be underpredicted. For observed 36-hour rainfall accumulations exceeding 200 mm, the negative bias typically ranges between 15 and 30% with fairly little dependence on the microphysical parametriza-tion. In the coarser-resolved runs, the bias at high precipitation amounts becomes even more pronounced, and it is found that this behaviour is not only due to the fact that a coarser resolution is associated with a smoother topography. This indicates a systematic deficiency in the microphysical parametrizations, limiting their ability to simulate heavy precipitation.
机译：本文介绍了2002年8月12日至13日在德国东部发生的洪灾事件的高分辨率数值模拟。使用Penn州立/国家大气研究中心中尺度模型MM5以四域配置进行模拟，其最佳水平分辨率为1 km。在较粗的分辨率（3和9 km），不同的云微物理参数设置和不同的初始化日期下进行了敏感性实验。此外，为了进行分离，对分辨率为1 km的测试进行了测试，但对9 km运行的地形进行了平滑处理模型地形对1 km跑步和9 km跑步之间的差异的影响。结果表明，高分辨率运行很好地再现了观测到的降水场结构。特别是最大降雨的位置正确到15公里以内。在有轻度到中雨的地区，模型结果与观测值之间的定量一致性相当好，但是大量降水往往被低估了。对于观察到的超过200毫米的36小时降雨累积，负偏差通常在15％到30％之间，而对微物理参数设置的依赖性很小。在较粗分辨率的运行中，高降水量下的偏差变得更加明显，并且发现这种行为不仅是由于较粗分辨率与更平滑地形相关联的事实所致。这表明在微物理参数设置方面存在系统缺陷，限制了它们模拟大量降水的能力。

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