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首页> 外文期刊>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society >The essential ingredients leading to the explosive growth stage of the European wind storm Lothar of Christmas 1999
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The essential ingredients leading to the explosive growth stage of the European wind storm Lothar of Christmas 1999

机译：导致1999年圣诞节的欧洲飓风Lothar爆炸性增长阶段的基本成分

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摘要

Key dynamical ingredients leading to the explosive growth stage of the extratropical wind storm Lothar (24-26 December 1999) are identified by performing numerical sensitivity experiments using the Meteo-France operational model. This stage suddenly occurred when the surface cyclone crossed the upper-level jet in its exit region. The model is shown to capture quite well the whole process by starting the forecast 12 h before the start of the explosive growth stage. A first set of experiments consistsof revisiting the role of humidity and other physical processes. A run suppressing latent heating does not exhibit any cyclone growth, similar to a previous study by other authors. However, a frictionless dry adiabatic run, i.e. when latent heating processes and dissipation terms are both suppressed, is shown to reproduce the timing and the location of the rapid intensification stage but not its intensity (which is overestimated). Moist processes are thus crucial because they compensate for the dissipation terms, but the vertical coupling between the surface cyclone and the upper-level jet can be reproduced and interpreted in terms of frictionless dry adiabatic interactions, at least for conceptual purposes. All the other numerical experiments have thefull physics of the model and only differ in their initial conditions. The modification of the flow is performed using a recently developed potential vorticity inversion method. Upper-level high-frequency anomalies are shown to have only a moderate impact on the rapid deepening of the surface cyclone. Other experiments are conducted to look at the sensitivity to the strength of the upper-level jet, to the intensity of the low-level baroclinicity, to the location of the jet exit and finally to the shape, amplitude and location of the low-level cyclone. The location of the explosive growth stage depends primarily on the position of the low-frequency jet exit while its intensity and even its existence is strongly sensitive to the low-level background baroclinicity and to the properties of the incipient surface cyclone itself.
机译：通过使用Meteo-France运行模型进行数值敏感性实验，确定了导致温带风风暴Lothar（1999年12月24-26日）爆炸性增长阶段的关键动力成分。当表面旋风分离器在其出口区域越过高层喷射流时，该阶段突然发生。通过在爆炸增长阶段开始前12小时开始预测，该模型可以很好地捕获整个过程。第一组实验包括重新研究湿度和其他物理过程的作用。类似于其他作者先前的研究，抑制潜热的运行不会表现出任何旋风增长。然而，无摩擦的干绝热运行，即当潜热过程和耗散项都被抑制时，被显示为再现了快速强化阶段的时间和位置，而不是其强度（被高估了）。因此，潮湿过程至关重要，因为它们可以补偿耗散项，但是至少出于概念上的目的，可以根据无摩擦的干绝热相互作用来复制和解释表面旋风分离器和高层喷气流之间的垂直耦合。所有其他数值实验都具有模型的全部物理特性，只是它们的初始条件不同。使用最近开发的潜在涡度反演方法进行流的修改。高层高频异常显示出对表面气旋的快速加深只有中等程度的影响。进行其他实验以查看对高空射流强度，低空斜压强度，射流出口位置以及最终对低空形状，振幅和位置的敏感性气旋。爆炸物生长阶段的位置主要取决于低频射流出口的位置，而其强度甚至其存在对低水平的背景斜度和初始表面气旋自身的特性都非常敏感。

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