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Far-Field Tsunami Hazard in New Zealand Ports

机译：新西兰港口的远场海啸危险

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摘要

We present the results of a numerical modeling study investigating the effects of far-field tsunamis in New Zealand ports. Four sites (Marsden Point, Tauranga, Harbor, Port Taranaki and Lyttelton Harbor) were selected based on a combination of factors such as economic importance and the availability of historical and/or instrumental data. Numerical models were created using the ComMIT tsunami modeling tool and the Method Of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) hydrodynamic model. Comparison of model results to measured data from recent historical events showed that, for particular sites and events, the model correlated well with the timing and amplitude of the observed tsunami, and, in most cases, there was generally good agreement between the and modeled tsunami heights and current speeds. A sensitivity analysis for tsunami heights and current speeds was conducted using a suite of large (M (W) 9) tsunamigenic earthquake sources situated at regular 15A degrees intervals in azimuth along the Pacific Rim while another set of scenarios focused on regional tsunami sources in the Southwest Pacific. Model results were analyzed for tsunami heights and current speeds as a function of the source region. In terms of currents, the analysis identified where speeds were greatest and which source was responsible. Results suggested that tsunamis originating from Central America produced the strongest response in New Zealand. The modeling was also used to determine the timing and duration of potentially dangerous current speeds as well as minimum 'safe depths' for vessel evacuation offshore. This study was motivated by the desire to reduce damage and operational losses via improved forecasting of far-field tsunamis at New Zealand ports. It is important that forecasts are accurate since tsunami damage to ships and facilities is expensive and can be mitigated given timely warnings and because preventable false alarms are also costly in terms of lost productivity. The modeling presented here will underpin efforts to produce port-specific guidance and information in the event of future Pacific tsunamis.
机译：我们提供了一个数值模型研究的结果，该研究调查了新西兰港口远场海啸的影响。根据经济因素以及历史和/或仪器数据的可用性等因素的组合，选择了四个地点（马斯登角，陶朗加，港口，塔拉纳基港和利特尔顿港）。使用ComMIT海啸建模工具和海啸分裂方法（MOST）流体动力学模型创建了数值模型。将模型结果与近期历史事件的测得数据进行比较，结果表明，对于特定的地点和事件，该模型与观测到的海啸的时间和振幅具有良好的相关性，并且在大多数情况下，与海啸之间通常存在良好的一致性高度和当前速度。使用一套大型（M（W）9）海啸成因地震源，沿着环太平洋沿方位角以规则的15A度间隔进行了海啸高度和当前速度敏感性分析，而另一组场景则集中在海啸中的区域海啸源。西南太平洋。分析了模型结果的海啸高度和当前速度与源区域的关系。就潮流而言，分析确定了最快的速度和哪个原因。结果表明，源自中美洲的海啸在新西兰产生了最强烈的反应。该模型还用于确定潜在危险当前速度的时间和持续时间，以及用于海上撤离船只的最小“安全深度”。这项研究的动机是希望通过改进对新西兰港口远海啸的预报来减少损失和经营损失。由于海啸对船舶和设施的损害是昂贵的，并且在及时发出警告的情况下可以减轻，并且因为可预防的虚假警报在生产力损失方面的代价也很高，因此准确的预测非常重要。此处介绍的模型将为将来发生太平洋海啸时提供针对特定港口的指南和信息提供支持。

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