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首页> 外文期刊>The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics >Supply and demand for commodity components: implications of free trade versus the AUSFTA for the US dairy industry.
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Supply and demand for commodity components: implications of free trade versus the AUSFTA for the US dairy industry.

机译：商品成分的供求：自由贸易与AUSFTA对美国乳业的影响。

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摘要

During the negotiations on the Australia-US free trade agreement (AUSFTA), the US dairy industry vigorously opposed opening the US market to imports of Australian dairy products on the grounds that the US industry would be devastated. Subsequently, the agreement signed in February 2004 made an exception for dairy, providing for only limited quota expansion and no free trade, even at the end of the long implementation period. This paper presents a simulation model of world dairy markets, represented by supply and demand equations for fat and non-fat components of milk and manufactured dairy products. We use the model to analyse the effects on US milk markets of both a hypothetical agreement, allowing free bilateral trade in dairy products, and the actual AUSFTA. An important contribution to the literature is the derivation of explicit supply and demand relationships for milk components. The components model allows an analysis of long-term production, consumption, and trade patterns that is not tied to specific, fungible products. Simulations indicate that increased imports from Australia resulting from bilateral trade liberalisation would have resulted in small reductions in US milk prices and production. The much smaller increases in Australian access to the US market under the actual AUSFTA will have even smaller, almost negligible, impacts..
机译：在就澳美自由贸易协定（AUSFTA）进行的谈判中，美国乳业强烈反对以破坏美国工业为由向进口澳大利亚乳制品开放美国市场。随后，2004年2月签署的协议将乳制品作为例外，仅规定了有限的配额扩展，没有自由贸易，即使在漫长的实施期结束时也是如此。本文提出了一个世界乳品市场的仿真模型，以牛奶和人造乳制品中脂肪和非脂肪成分的供求方程表示。我们使用该模型来分析假设的协议（允许乳制品的自由双边贸易）和实际的AUSFTA对美国牛奶市场的影响。对文献的重要贡献是对牛奶成分明确的供求关系的推导。组件模型可以分析与特定的，可替代的产品无关的长期生产，消费和贸易模式。模拟表明，双边贸易自由化导致从澳大利亚进口的增加将导致美国牛奶价格和产量小幅下降。根据实际的AUSFTA，澳大利亚进入美国市场的增长幅度要小得多，其影响将更小，几乎可以忽略不计。

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