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首页> 外文期刊>Tellus, Series B. Chemical and Physical Meteorology >Observations and modelling of the global distribution and long-term trend of atmospheric ~(14)CO_2
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Observations and modelling of the global distribution and long-term trend of atmospheric ~(14)CO_2

机译：大气〜（14）CO_2的全球分布和长期趋势的观测和建模

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摘要

Global high-precision atmospheric △~(14)CO_2 records covering the last two decades are presented, and evaluated in terms of changing (radio)carbon sources and sinks, using the coarse-grid carbon cycle model GRACE. Dedicated simulations of global trends and interhemispheric differences with respect to atmospheric CO_2 as well as δ13CO2 and △~(14)CO_2, are shown to be in good agreement with the available observations (1940–2008). While until the 1990s the decreasing trend of △~(14)CO_2 was governed by equilibration of the atmospheric bomb 14C perturbation with the oceans and terrestrial biosphere, the largest perturbation today are emissions of 14C-free fossil fuel CO2. This source presently depletes global atmospheric △~(14)CO_2 by 12–14‰ yr~(-1), which is partially compensated by ~(14)CO_2 release from the biosphere,industrial ~(14)C emissions and natural ~(14)C production. Fossil fuel emissions also drive the changing north–south gradient,showing lower △~(14)C in the northern hemisphere only since 2002. The fossil fuel-induced north–south (and also troposphere–stratosphere) △~(14)CO_2 gradient today also drives the tropospheric △~(14)CO_2 seasonality through variations of air mass exchange between these atmospheric compartments. Neither the observed temporal trend nor the △~(14)CO_2 north–south gradient may constrain global fossil fuel CO2 emissions to better than 25%, due to large uncertainties in other components of the (radio)carbon cycle.
机译：介绍了过去二十年的全球高精度大气△〜（14）CO_2记录，并使用粗网格碳循环模型GRACE对变化的（放射性）碳源和汇进行了评估。关于大气CO_2以及δ13CO2和△〜（14）CO_2的全球趋势和半球间差异的专门模拟显示与现有观测值（1940–2008）吻合良好。直到1990年代△〜（14）CO_2的下降趋势是由大气炸弹对14C的扰动与海洋和陆地生物圈的平衡所决定的，而当今最大的扰动是无14C的化石燃料CO2的排放。该来源目前使全球大气中的△〜（14）CO_2消耗了12–14‰yr〜（-1），部分抵消了生物圈中的〜（14）CO_2释放，工业〜（14）C排放和自然〜（ 14）C生产。化石燃料的排放也带动了南北梯度的变化，仅在2002年以来才显示出北半球的△〜（14）C较低。如今，通过这些大气层之间空气质量交换的变化，也驱动了对流层△〜（14）CO_2的季节变化。由于（放射性）碳循环其他成分的不确定性，观测到的时间趋势和△〜（14）CO_2南北梯度都不会将全球化石燃料的CO2排放限制在25％以上。

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