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首页> 外文期刊>The International journal of drug policy >Impact of South American heroin on the US heroin market 1993-2004
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Impact of South American heroin on the US heroin market 1993-2004

机译：1993-2004年南美海洛因对美国海洛因市场的影响

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Background: The past two decades have seen an increase in heroin-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. We report on trends in US heroin retail price and purity, including the effect of entry of Colombian-sourced heroin on the US heroin market. Methods: The average standardized price (dollar/mg-pure) and purity (% by weight) of heroin from 1993 to 2004 was from obtained from US Drug Enforcement Agency retail purchase data for 20 metropolitan statistical areas. Univariate statistics, robust Ordinary Least Squares regression and mixed fixed and random effect growth curve models were used to predict the price and purity data in each metropolitan statistical area overtime. Results: Over the 12 study years, heroin price decreased 62%. The median percentage of all heroin samples that are of South American origin increased an absolute 7% per year. Multivariate models suggest percent South American heroin is a significant predictor of lower heroin price and higher purity adjusting for time and demographics. Conclusion: These analyses reveal trends to historically low-cost heroin in many US cities. These changes correspond to the entrance into and rapid domination of the US heroin market by Colombian-sourced heroin. The implications of these changes are discussed.
机译：背景：在过去的二十年中，美国海洛因相关的发病率和死亡率有所增加。我们报告了美国海洛因零售价格和纯度的趋势，包括来自哥伦比亚的海洛因进入美国海洛因市场的影响。方法：1993年至2004年的海洛因平均标准化价格（美元/ mg-纯）和海洛因纯度（％（重量））来自美国药物执行局针对20个大都市统计地区的零售购买数据。使用单变量统计，鲁棒的普通最小二乘回归以及混合的固定和随机效应增长曲线模型来预测每个大都市统计区域加班时间的价格和纯度数据。结果：在过去的12年中，海洛因价格下降了62％。来自南美的所有海洛因样品的中位数百分比每年绝对增加7％。多变量模型表明，南美海洛因百分比是预测海洛因价格较低和纯度随时间和人口变化而调整的重要预测指标。结论：这些分析揭示了美国许多城市历史上低成本海洛因的趋势。这些变化与哥伦比亚来源的海洛因进入并迅速占领美国海洛因市场相对应。讨论了这些更改的含义。

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