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首页> 外文期刊>Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture >Global climate change and vulnerability of African agriculture: implications for resilience and sustained productive capacity
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Global climate change and vulnerability of African agriculture: implications for resilience and sustained productive capacity

机译：全球气候变化和非洲农业的脆弱性：对复原力和持续生产能力的影响

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Despite noticeable improvements in recent socio-economic performance in Africa, variations exist across countries and performance is constrained by plethora of factors that inhibit the attaimnent of Africa's optimum production potential. Changing climate and environmental factors have contributed to increased transactions costs, lower productivity of factors of production, increased bottlenecks in the production process and investment challenges, especially for small and medium scale farmers in varying degrees across the continent. This paper reviews the impact of climate change on farming activities in Africa. Four countries across the continent are studied, viz. Burkina Faso, Egypt, Kenya and South Africa. We examine how long-term profitability of4,000 farms vary with local climate, such as temperature and precipitation. To better ascertain the impact of climate variables, the marginal impacts of unit changes in temperatures and precipitation on crop fanning activities are studied. Using selected climate scenarios, predictions are made on the extent to which projected climate changes will affect net revenues by the year 2050 and 2100. The findings suggest that climate affects agricultural returns in the four countries. The results further showthat there is a non-linear relationship between temperature and crop revenue on the one hand and between precipitation and crop revenue on the other. Overall, the temperature eiasticity suggests that global warming is harmful for agriculture across all the countries. These have profound implications for the policy requirements to address the productive capacity and resilience of the agricultural sector. Effort will be required to enhance adaptation at farm, regional and national levels. Policy adjustments will in addition require increased liberalization of the financial system and an implementation of agricuhure civil service reforms for better performance of the extension service. This may have further implications for state budgeting and agriculturesector expenditures which will without doubt require new shifts.
机译：尽管非洲最近的社会经济绩效有了显着改善，但各国之间仍存在差异，并且绩效受到多种因素的制约，这些因素抑制了非洲最佳生产潜力的发挥。变化的气候和环境因素导致交易成本增加，生产要素生产率降低，生产过程中的瓶颈增加和投资挑战，特别是对整个非洲大陆中小规模农民而言。本文回顾了气候变化对非洲农业活动的影响。研究了非洲大陆上的四个国家。布基纳法索，埃及，肯尼亚和南非。我们研究了4,000个农场的长期获利能力如何随当地气候（例如温度和降水）而变化。为了更好地确定气候变量的影响，研究了温度和降水量单位变化对农作物扇动活动的边际影响。使用选定的气候情景，对预计的气候变化将在多大程度上影响到2050年和2100年的净收入做出预测。研究结果表明，气候影响了这四个国家的农业收益。结果进一步表明，一方面温度与农作物收入之间存在非线性关系，另一方面降水与农作物收入之间存在非线性关系。总体而言，温度的上升表明全球变暖对所有国家的农业都是有害的。这些对解决农业部门生产能力和弹性的政策要求具有深远的影响。将需要努力在农场，区域和国家各级加强适应。此外，政策调整将需要加强金融体系的自由化和实施农业公务员制度改革，以使推广服务更好地发挥作用。这可能会对国家预算和农业部门的支出产生进一步的影响，这无疑将需要新的转变。

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