What's the difference between the manufacturing outlook for 2002 and that for 2003? Not much. Both present a mixture of positive and negative indicators and portray an industry struggling to get back on its feet. After an expansion that lasted 10 years and a surge of speculation that the business cycle was dead, the business cycle returned to life. The U.S. economy, which enjoyed its longest modern peacetime expansion from 1991 to 2001, entered a recession that lasted the first three quarters of 2001. Although a recovery has been under way since the fourth quarter of 2001, it has been a slow, gradual recovery characterized by conflicting signals and occasional setbacks.
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