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首页> 外文期刊>The Review of Economic Studies >Health, Risky Behaviour and the Value of Medical Innovation for Infectious Disease
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Health, Risky Behaviour and the Value of Medical Innovation for Infectious Disease

机译：健康，危险行为和传染病医疗创新的价值

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摘要

We propose a dynamic framework to study the value of medical innovation in the context of infectious disease. We apply our framework to evaluate an HIV treatment breakthrough known as HAART. The model captures how, in lowering both the expected cost and likelihood of HIV infection, HAART reduced the implicit price of risky sex. Forward-looking agents responded by optimally shifting their behaviour. The model also imposes equilibrium constraints, explicitly capturing how optimal shifts in behaviour affect equilibrium choices by changing both infection probabilities and the ease of finding partners willing to engage in risky sex. Using the estimated model, we conduct counterfactual simulations to compute the value of HAART from the perspective of uninfected agents. This includes the option value of the innovation along with value accruing from changes in sex behaviour in response to HAART introduction. We also calculate the added value of a fully functional vaccine from the perspective of both infected and uninfected agents, where infected agents benefit from a vaccine due to resulting shifts in market equilibrium.
机译：我们提出了一个动态框架来研究传染病背景下医疗创新的价值。我们将我们的框架应用于评估称为HAART的HIV治疗突破。该模型说明了HAART如何在降低预期成本和HIV感染可能性的同时降低了危险性行为的隐性价格。具有前瞻性的特工通过最佳地改变其行为来做出回应。该模型还施加了均衡约束，通过改变感染机率和寻找愿意从事危险性行为的伴侣的难易程度，明确捕获行为的最佳变化如何影响均衡选择。使用估计的模型，我们进行反事实模拟，以从未感染病原体的角度计算HAART的价值。这包括创新的选择价值，以及因应HAART的引入而发生的性行为变化所产生的价值。我们还从感染者和未感染者的角度计算了功能齐全的疫苗的附加值，在这种情况下，由于市场均衡的变化，感染者从疫苗中受益。

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