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首页> 外文期刊>Transactions of the American Fisheries Society >Effects of Temperature on Age-0 Atlantic Menhaden Growth in Chesapeake Bay
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Effects of Temperature on Age-0 Atlantic Menhaden Growth in Chesapeake Bay

机译：温度对切萨皮克湾0岁大西洋鲱的生长的影响

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摘要

Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannusis an economically and ecologically important forage fish in the western Atlantic Ocean. In the Chesapeake Bay, its recruitment has been low since the late 1980s, prompting questions on how environmental factors may affect its productivity. Growth is an important component of production, but causes of spatial and temporal variability in growth of age-0 Atlantic Menhaden are not fully understood. Our objective was to quantify the effect of temperature on spatial and temporal variability in growth of age-0 Atlantic Menhaden in Chesapeake Bay. We analyzed data on mean length and temperature for years 1962–2011 from nine regions of Chesapeake Bay. We developed a linear model that relates mean total length of Atlantic Menhaden to cumulative growing degree-days (GDDs) in Chesapeake Bay and validated the model using data that were withheld from the initial parameter estimation. The temperature threshold that best described variability in growth was 14C, a temperaturesubstantially higher than the physiological threshold for growth. The GDD model explained almost 80% of the variability in mean length over time (within and among years) and among regions. In a model validation exercise, it accurately predicted mean length in tributary subregions of the bay not included in the original model fitting. The GDD model requires only temperature data to effectively predict growth, making it simpler to apply than models requiring more complex approaches.
机译：Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannusis是西大西洋上具有重要经济和生态意义的饲料鱼。在切萨皮克湾，自1980年代后期以来其招聘人数一直很低，这引发了人们对环境因素如何影响其生产力的疑问。增长是生产的重要组成部分，但对0岁大西洋Menhaden的增长时空变化的原因尚不完全清楚。我们的目标是量化温度对切萨皮克湾（Chesapeake Bay）的0岁大西洋Menhaden生长的时空变化的影响。我们分析了切萨皮克湾9个地区1962-2011年的平均长度和温度数据。我们开发了一个线性模型，该模型将大西洋Menhaden的平均总长度与切萨皮克湾的累积生长天数（GDD）相关联，并使用从初始参数估计中保留的数据验证了该模型。最能描述生长变化的温度阈值为14C，该温度明显高于生长的生理阈。 GDD模型解释了平均长度随时间（年内和年内）以及区域之间的变化的80％。在模型验证练习中，它准确地预测了原始模型拟合中未包括的海湾支流子区域的平均长度。 GDD模型仅需要温度数据即可有效地预测生长，因此比需要更复杂方法的模型更易于应用。

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