...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Translational research: the journal of laboratory and clinical medicine >Virtual epidemic in a virtual city: simulating the spread of influenza in a US metropolitan area.
【24h】

Virtual epidemic in a virtual city: simulating the spread of influenza in a US metropolitan area.

机译：虚拟城市中的虚拟流行病：模拟流感在美国大都市地区的传播。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

A wide variety of biologic, physiologic, social, economic, and geographic factors may affect the transmission, spread, and impact of influenza. Recent concerns about an impending influenza epidemic have generated a need for predictive computer simulation models to forecast the spread of influenza and the effectiveness of prevention and control strategies. We designed an agent-based computer simulation of a theoretical influenza epidemic in Norfolk, Va, that included extensive city-level details and computer representations of every Norfolk citizen, including their expected behavior and social interactions. The simulation introduced 200 infected cases on November 27, 2002 (day 87), and tracked the progress of the epidemic. On average, the prevalence peaked on day 178 (12.2% of the population). Our model showed a cyclical variation in influenza cases by day of the week with fewer people being exposed on weekends, differences in emergency room and clinic visits by day of the week, an earlier peak in influenza cases, and persistent high prevalence among people age 65 or older and the daily prevalence of infection among health-care workers. The level of detail included in our simulation model made these findings possible. Compared with other existing models, our model has a very extensive and detailed social network, which may be important because individuals with more social interactions and extensive social networks may be more likely to spread influenza. Our simulation may serve as a virtual laboratory to better understand the way different factors and interventions affect the spread of influenza.
机译：多种生物学，生理，社会，经济和地理因素可能会影响流感的传播，传播和影响。最近对即将到来的流行性感冒的担忧使人们需要预测计算机模拟模型来预测流行性感冒的蔓延以及预防和控制策略的有效性。我们针对弗吉尼亚州诺福克市的理论流感流行病设计了基于代理的计算机模拟，其中包括广泛的城市级详细信息以及每位诺福克公民的计算机代表，包括他们的预期行为和社交互动。该模拟在2002年11月27日（第87天）引入了200个受感染的病例，并跟踪了疫情的进展。平均而言，患病率在第178天达到高峰（占总人口的12.2％）。我们的模型显示，流感病例在一周中的每一天都有周期性变化，周末暴露的人群减少，急诊室和诊所就诊的差异在一周中的每一天，流感病例的发病高峰更早，并且65岁以下人群的持续高流行或更高年龄以及卫生保健工作者的日常感染率。仿真模型中包含的详细程度使这些发现成为可能。与其他现有模型相比，我们的模型具有非常广泛和详细的社交网络，这可能很重要，因为具有更多社交互动和广泛社交网络的人更可能传播流感。我们的模拟可以用作虚拟实验室，以更好地了解不同因素和干预措施影响流感传播的方式。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号