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首页> 外文期刊>Transport Reviews >Life, Limb and Bumper Trade-offs Calculable from Road Accident Models: An Empirical Multimoment Portfolio Analysis and Life Asset Pricing Model (LAPM)
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Life, Limb and Bumper Trade-offs Calculable from Road Accident Models: An Empirical Multimoment Portfolio Analysis and Life Asset Pricing Model (LAPM)

机译:可从道路事故模型计算出生命,肢体和保险杠的权衡:经验多方投资组合分析和生命资产定价模型(LAPM)

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The paper provides an empirical trade-off analysis among the first three moments of road accident frequencies, and it is demonstrated that road drivers can be understood as behaving with respect to road accidents as investors trading among the various moments of the return of a financial asset, as they attach utility to at least three moments of the accident probability in conformity with Allais's view. The method effectively proposes an empirical Life Asset Pricing Model (LAPM), i.e. a revealed preference alternative, derived directly from driver behaviour on the road itself, to the less direct human capital and willingness-to-pay approaches to the valuation of human life, termed 'value of a statistical life, in road risk analyses. The analysis, which is applicable in principle to any accident regression model, but performed here with two Demand for Road Use, Accidents and their Gravity (DRAG)-type aggregate time series models, respectively, for Quebec, Canada, and western Germany, shows amazing similarities in the estimated rates of substitution among accidents of various severity levels within each region, as well as amazing dissimilarities between the regions in the asymmetry of the sample distributions pertaining to bodily injury accidents. For Quebec, where the fully documented model in official use has a long history of successful explanation and forecasting of the number and seventy of road accidents, the rates of substitution among the accident frequencies of different categories imply that official Canadian human live valuations used in network accounts are too low (and the computed social cost recovery of roads too high), and that there exists a market for drivers willing to pay more for reduced driving risks than is assumed by road authorities on their behalf.
机译:本文提供了在道路事故发生频率的前三个时刻之间的经验折衷分析,并证明了在金融资产收益的各个时刻之间进行投资者交易的投资者,可以将道路驾驶员理解为与道路事故有关的行为。 ,因为它们符合阿莱(Allais)的观点,至少对事故概率的三个时刻具有效用。该方法有效地提出了一种经验性的生命资产定价模型(LAPM),即一种显式的偏好选择,直接源自驾驶员自身在道路上的行为,而并非直接的人力资本和支付意愿来评估人类生命,在道路风险分析中被称为“统计生命的价值”。该分析原则上适用于任何事故回归模型,但此处分别针对魁北克,加拿大和德国西部使用两种道路使用需求,事故及其重力(DRAG)型汇总时间序列模型进行了分析,结果显示每个区域内各种严重性级别的事故之间的估计替代率之间的惊人相似性,以及与人身伤害事故相关的样本分布的不对称性,各区域之间的惊人相似性。对于魁北克省来说,正式使用的完整记录的模型已有悠久的历史,可以成功地解释和预测道路事故的数量和七十个事故,不同类别事故频率之间的替代率意味着网络中使用的加拿大官方人类实时估值账户过低(计算得出的道路社会成本回收率过高),并且存在一个市场,驾驶员愿意为降低的驾驶风险付出比道路当局所代表的更高的代价。

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