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Implications of Thresholds in Discrete Choice Modelling

机译:阈值在离散选择建模中的含义

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Individual choices are affected by complex factors and the challenge consists of how to incorporate these factors in order to improve the realism of the modelling work. The presence of limits, cut-offs or thresholds in the perception and appraisal of both attributes and alternatives is part of the complexity inherent to choice-making behaviour. The paper considers the existence of thresholds in three contexts: inertia (habit or reluctance to change), minimum perceptible changes in attribute values, and as a mechanism for accepting or rejecting alternatives. It discusses the more relevant approaches in modelling these types of thresholds and analyses their implications in model estimation and forecasting using both synthetic and real databanks. It is clear from the analysis that if thresholds exist but are not considered, the estimated models will be biased and may produce significant errors in prediction. Fortunately, there are practical methods to attack this problem and some are demonstrated.
机译:个体选择受复杂因素影响,挑战在于如何纳入这些因素以改善建模工作的真实性。在对属性和替代方案的感知和评估中存在限制,临界值或阈值,这是选择行为固有的复杂性的一部分。本文考虑了以下三种情况下的阈值:惯性(习惯或不愿意改变),属性值的最小可感知变化以及作为接受或拒绝替代方案的机制。它讨论了在建模这些类型的阈值时更相关的方法,并分析了它们在使用综合数据库和实际数据库进行模型估计和预测中的含义。从分析中可以明显看出,如果存在阈值但不考虑阈值,则估计的模型将存在偏差,并可能在预测中产生重大错误。幸运的是,有解决此问题的实用方法,并且其中一些方法已得到演示。

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