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What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?

机译：是什么原因导致运输基础设施项目的成本超支？

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摘要

Results from the first statistically significant study of the causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects are presented. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and road projects worth USD90 billion. The focus is on the dependence of cost escalation on: (1) the length of the project-implementation phase, (2) the size of the project and (3) the type of project ownership. First, it was found, with very high statistical significance, that cost escalation was strongly dependent on the length of the implementation phase. The policy implications are clear: decision-makers and planners should be highly concerned about delays and long implementation phases because they translate into risks of substantial cost escalations. Second, projects have grown larger over time, and for bridges and tunnels larger projects have larger percentage cost escalations. Finally, by comparing the cost escalation for three types of project ownership - private, state-owned enterprise and other public ownership - it was shown that the oft-seen claim that public ownership is problematic and private ownership effective in curbing cost escalation is an oversimplification. The type of accountability appears to matter more to cost escalation than type of ownership.
机译：提出了对运输基础设施项目中成本上涨原因进行的第一笔具有统计意义的研究结果。该研究基于258个铁路，桥梁，隧道和公路项目，价值900亿美元。重点是成本升级对以下方面的依赖：（1）项目实施阶段的时间长短;（2）项目的规模;（3）项目所有权的类型。首先，发现具有很高的统计意义，费用的增加在很大程度上取决于实施阶段的时间。政策含义很明确：决策者和计划者应高度关注延迟和漫长的实施阶段，因为它们会转化为成本大幅上升的风险。第二，随着时间的推移，项目规模不断扩大，对于桥梁和隧道而言，大型项目的成本百分比上升也更大。最后，通过比较三种类型的项目所有权（私人，国有企业和其他公有制）的成本上升，表明经常有人认为公有制是有问题的，而私有制有效地遏制了成本上升是一种过分的简化。问责制的类型似乎对成本升级的影响大于所有权类型。

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