Specific competitive conditions will decide the successful introduction of proton exchange membrane fuel cells as the core of an automotive traction system. Michael Porter's competitive analysis methodology, the 'five forces model of competitive structure', was used in the first part of the paper to develop an overview of the competitive forces in the fuel cell industry. Porter's model places emphasis on external factors by examining the nature of the market environment. A company is considered to be in a favourable competitive position if the five threatening forces are not too strong. The five forces are potential new competitors, supplier power, customer power, competition in the industry group and the threat of substitutes. The second part gives an overview of success factors that may contribute to a breakthrough of fuel cell technology from niche market to mass market in the automotive industry. This analysis also identifies critical factors that affect both market penetration time and the rate of product diffusion into the mass market. Several fuel cell manufacturers such as Ballard Power Systems, Nuvera and United Technologies Fuel Cells will enter the competitive fuel cell market. Customers will have a high degree of bargaining power as they will merge to a few big companies and will threaten the fuel cell companies with a possible backward integration. The high sum to be invested into research, into development and production methods will lead to high market entrance barriers. A strong competition comes from the possible substitution goods. Although the fuel cell is, in principle, an ideal energy source without local carbon dioxide emission, substitution goods such as further developed gasoline and diesel engines, hybrid and compressed natural gas vehicles will have medium-term competitive advantages.
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机译：特定的竞争条件将决定成功引入质子交换膜燃料电池作为汽车牵引系统的核心。本文第一部分使用了迈克尔·波特的竞争分析方法，即“竞争结构的五种力量模型”，以概述燃料电池行业的竞争能力。波特的模型通过检查市场环境的性质来强调外部因素。如果五种威胁力量不太强，则一家公司将处于有利的竞争地位。这五种力量是潜在的新竞争者，供应商力量，客户力量，行业集团的竞争以及替代品的威胁。第二部分概述了成功因素，这些成功因素可能有助于燃料电池技术从小众市场进入汽车行业的大众市场。该分析还确定了影响市场渗透时间和产品向大众市场扩散速度的关键因素。巴拉德动力系统（Ballard Power Systems），Nuvera和联合技术燃料电池（United Technologies Fuel Cells）等多家燃料电池制造商将进入竞争激烈的燃料电池市场。客户将具有高度的议价能力，因为他们将合并到一些大公司，并可能向后整合，威胁燃料电池公司。要投入大量资金用于研究，开发和生产方法，将导致很高的市场进入壁垒。强大的竞争来自可能的替代商品。尽管原则上燃料电池是一种理想的能源，不会产生局部二氧化碳排放，但替代产品（如进一步开发的汽油和柴油发动机，混合动力和压缩天然气汽车）将具有中期竞争优势。
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