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Weather factors influencing the occurrence of dengue fever in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand

机译：天气因素影响泰国那空西他叻府登革热的发生

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摘要

This study explored the impact of weather variability on the transmission of dengue fever in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand. Data on monthly-notified cases of dengue fever, over the period of January 1981 - June 2012 were collected from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health. Weather data over the same period were obtained from the Thai Meteorological Department. Spearman correlation analysis and time-series adjusted Poisson regression analysis were performed to quantify the relationship between weather and the number of dengue cases. The results showed that maximum and minimum temperatures at a lag of zero months, the amount of rainfall, and relative humidity at a lag of two months were significant predictors of dengue incidence in Nakhon Si Thammarat. The time series Poisson regression model demonstrated goodness-of-fit with a correlation between observed and predicted number of dengue incidence rate of 91.82%. This model could be used to optimise dengue prevention by predicting trends in dengue incidence. Accurate predictions, for even a few months, provide an invaluable opportunity to mount a vector control intervention or to prepare for hospital demand in the community.
机译：这项研究探讨了天气变化对泰国洛坤府登革热传播的影响。 1981年1月至2012年6月期间每月报告的登革热病例数据来自公共卫生部疾病控制局流行病学局。同期的天气数据是从泰国气象部门获得的。进行了Spearman相关分析和时间序列调整的Poisson回归分析，以量化天气与登革热病例数之间的关系。结果表明，零时滞的最高和最低温度，两月时滞的降雨量和相对湿度是洛坤府登革热发病率的重要预测指标。时间序列Poisson回归模型显示出拟合优度，登革热发病率的预测值与预测值之间的相关性为91.82％。该模型可通过预测登革热发病率趋势来优化登革热预防。准确的预测（甚至几个月）为开展病媒控制干预或为社区的医院需求做准备提供了宝贵的机会。

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