• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Weather and forecasting >A Comparison between a Generalized Beta-Advection Model and a Classical Beta-Advection Model in Predicting and Understanding Unusual Typhoon Tracks in Eastern China Seas
【24h】

A Comparison between a Generalized Beta-Advection Model and a Classical Beta-Advection Model in Predicting and Understanding Unusual Typhoon Tracks in Eastern China Seas

机译：广义贝塔对流模型与经典贝塔对流模型在预测和理解东海异常台风路径中的比较

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

A total of 163 tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the eastern China seas during 1979-2011 with four types of tracks: left turning, right turning, straight moving, and irregular. The left-turning type is unusual and hard to predict. In this paper, 133 TCs from the first three types have been investigated. A generalized beta-advection model (GBAM) is derived by decomposing a meteorological field into climatic and anomalous components. The ability of the GBAM to predict tracks 1-2 days in advance is compared with three classical beta-advection models (BAMs). For both normal and unusual tracks, the GBAM apparently outperformed the BAMs. The GBAM's ability to predict unusual TC tracks is particularly encouraging, while the BAMs have no ability to predict the left-turning and right-turning TC tracks. The GBAM was also used to understand unusual TC tracks because it can be separated into two forms: a climatic-flow BAM (CBAM) and an anomalous-flow BAM (ABAM). In the CBAM a TC vortex is steered by the large-scale climatic background flow, while in the ABAM, a TC vortex interacts with the surrounding anomalous flows. This decomposition approach can be used to examine the climatic and anomalous flows separately. It is found that neither the climatic nor the anomalous flow alone can explain unusual tracks. Sensitivity experiments show that two anomalous highs as well as a nearby TC played the major roles in the unusual left turn of Typhoon Aere (2004). This study demonstrates that a simple model can work well if key factors are properly included.
机译：1979-2011年期间，中国东部海域共发生了163个热带气旋（TC），有四种类型的航迹：左转，右转，直行和不规则。左转弯的类型很特殊，很难预测。本文研究了前三种类型的133个TC。通过将气象场分解为气候和异常分量，可以得出广义的β对流模型（GBAM）。将GBAM提前1-2天预测航迹的能力与三个经典的β对流模型（BAM）进行了比较。对于正常轨道和异常轨道，GBAM显然都优于BAM。 GBAM预测异常TC轨迹的能力尤其令人鼓舞，而BAM则无法预测左转和右转TC轨迹。 GBAM还可以用来理解异常的TC轨迹，因为它可以分为两种形式：气候流BAM（CBAM）和异常流BAM（ABAM）。在CBAM中，TC旋涡由大规模的气候背景流控制，而在ABAM中，TC旋涡与周围的异常流相互作用。这种分解方法可用于分别检查气候和异常流量。发现，无论是气候流量还是异常流量都不能解释异常轨道。敏感性实验表明，两个异常高点以及附近的热带气旋在台风艾莉（2004）的异常左转中起主要作用。这项研究表明，如果适当包含关键因素，则简单的模型可以很好地发挥作用。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号