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Spatial GHG Inventory: Analysis of Uncertainty Sources. A Case Study for Ukraine

机译:空间温室气体清单:不确定性来源分析。乌克兰的个案研究

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摘要

A geoinformation technology for creating spatially distributed greenhouse gas inventories based on a methodology provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and special software linking input data, inventory models, and a means for visualization are proposed. This technology opens up new possibilities for qualitative and quantitative spatially distributed presentations of inventory uncer tainty at the regional level. Problems concerning uncertainty and verification of the distributed invento ry are discussed. A Monte Carlo analysis of uncertain ties in the energy sector at the regional level is performed, and a number of simulations concerning the effectiveness of uncertainty reduction in some regions are carried out. Uncertainties in activity data have a considerable influence on overall inventory uncertainty, for example, the inventory uncertainty in the energy sector declines from 3.2 to 2.0% when the uncertainty of energy-related statistical data on fuels combusted in the energy industries declines from 10 to 5%. Within the energy sector, the 'energy industries' subsector has the greatest impact on inventory uncer tainty. The relative uncertainty in the energy sector inventory can be reduced from 2.19 to 1.47% if the uncertainty of specific statistical data on fuel consump tion decreases from 10 to 5%. The 'energy industries' subsector has the greatest influence in the Donetsk oblast. Reducing the uncertainty of statistical data on electricity generation in just three regions - the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Luhansk oblasts - from 7.5 to 4.0% results in a decline from 2.6 to 1.6% in the uncertainty in the national energy sector inventory.
机译:提出了一种基于政府间气候变化专门委员会提供的方法和用于链接输入数据,清单模型和可视化手段的专用软件来创建空间分布的温室气体清单的地理信息技术。这项技术为定性和定量的区域不确定性在空间上的分布表示提供了新的可能性。讨论了有关不确定性和分布式库存验证的问题。在区域层面对能源部门的不确定联系进行了蒙特卡洛分析,并进行了一些模拟,涉及一些地区减少不确定性的有效性。活动数据的不确定性对总体库存不确定性有相当大的影响,例如,当能源行业中与能源相关的燃料统计数据的不确定性从10降低到5时,能源行业的库存不确定性从3.2%降低到2.0%。 %。在能源行业中,“能源行业”子行业对库存不确定性的影响最大。如果具体的燃油消耗统计数据的不确定性从10%降低到5%,则能源行业清单中的相对不确定性可以从2.19降低到1.47%。 “能源工业”子行业在顿涅茨克州影响最大。将顿涅茨克州,第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州和卢甘斯克州这三个地区的发电统计数据的不确定性从7.5%降低到4.0%,导致全国能源部门清单的不确定性从2.6%降低到1.6%。

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