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The forecast of seasonal precipitation trend at the north Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobao regions, Inner Mongolia for the next 20 years

机译:未来20年内蒙古北部贺兰山和白衣ina堡地区季节性降水趋势预测

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摘要

By using Caterpillar-SSA analysis method. through the process of embedding, singular value decomposition, grouping and diagonal averaging, the seasonal precipitation trend at north Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobo regions, Inner Mongolia for the next 20years is forecasted. The results show an increasing precipitation trend from 1992 to 2004. In the subsequent decade the precipitation should reduce quickly, and it will reach a minimum near 2012 to 2014 in both regions. The drought caused by the decreaseof the precipitation from May to July in the north Helan Mountain area during the period of 2013-2014 is probably quite similar to that around 1929. Further, the period of precipitation gradual increase follows in the researched regions.
机译:通过使用Caterpillar-SSA分析方法。通过嵌入,奇异值分解,分组和对角线平均的过程,预测了未来20年内蒙古北部贺兰山和白衣脑波地区的季节性降水趋势。结果表明,从1992年到2004年,降水量呈上升趋势。在随后的十年中,降水量将迅速减少,在这两个地区,到2012年至2014年,降水量将降至最低。在2013-2014年期间,贺兰山区北部5月至7月降水减少造成的干旱可能与1929年左右相当。此外,研究区域的降水逐渐增加。

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