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首页> 外文期刊>Human Ecology >Does the Future Affect the Present? The Effects of Future Weather on the Current Collection of Planted Crops and Wildlife in a Native Amazonian Society of Bolivia
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Does the Future Affect the Present? The Effects of Future Weather on the Current Collection of Planted Crops and Wildlife in a Native Amazonian Society of Bolivia

机译：未来会影响现在吗？未来天气对玻利维亚土著亚马逊社会当前种植的农作物和野生生物的影响

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Unlike neighboring disciplines, anthropology rarely studies how actual future events affect current behavior.Such studies could lay the groundwork for studies of ethnoforecasting.Psychologists argue that people forecast poorly,but some empirical work in cultural anthropology suggests that at least with weather, rural people might make reasonably accurate forecasts. Using data from a smallscale,pre-industrial rural society in the Bolivian Amazon,this study estimates the effects of future weather on the current collection of planted crops and wildlife. If actual future events affect current behavior, then this would suggest that people must forecast accurately. Longitudinal data covering 11 consecutive months (10/2002–8/2003, inclusive) from 311 women and 326 men ≥age 14 in 13 villages of a contemporary society of forager-farmers in Bolivia’s Amazon (Tsimane’) are used. Individual fixed-effect panel linear regressions are used to estimate the effect of future weather (mean hourly temperature and total daily rain) over the next 1–7 days from today on the probability of collecting wildlife (game, fish, and feral plants excluding firewood) and planted farm crops (annuals and perennials) today. Daily weather records come from a town next to the Tsimane’ territory and data on foraging and farming come from scans (behavioral spot observations) and surveys of study participants done during scans. Short-term future weather (≤3 days) affected the probability of collecting planted crops and wildlife today,although the effect was greater on the amount of planted crops harvested today than on the amount of wildlife collected today. Future weather beyond 3 days bore no significant association with the amount of planted crops harvested today nor with the amount of wildlife collected today. After controlling for future and past weather, today’s weather (mean hourly temperature, but not rain) affected the probability of collecting wildlife today, but today’s weather (temperature or rain) did not affect the probability of collecting planted crops today. The study supports prior work by anthropologists suggesting that rural people forecast accurately. If future weather affects the probability of harvesting planted crops and collecting wildlife today, then this suggests that Tsimane’ must forecast accurately. We discuss possible reasons for the finding. The study also supports growing evidence from rural areas of low-income nations that rural people tend to protect their food production and food consumption well against small idiosyncratic shocks or, in our case, against ordinary daily weather that is not extreme. However, the greater responsiveness of daily foraging output compared with daily farming output to today’s weather suggests that foraging might not protect food consumption as well as farming against adverse climate perturbations.
机译：与邻近学科不同，人类学很少研究实际的未来事件如何影响当前行为。此类研究可以为民族预测研究打下基础。心理学家认为，人们的预测不佳，但是文化人类学的一些实证研究表明，至少在天气条件下，农村人口可能做出合理准确的预测。这项研究使用玻利维亚亚马逊小规模，工业化前的农村社会的数据，估算了未来天气对目前种植的农作物和野生动植物的影响。如果将来发生的实际事件影响当前行为，则表明人们必须进行准确的预测。使用了玻利维亚亚马逊河（Tsimane'）的当代饲草农民社会中13个村庄的11个连续11个月（10 / 2002-8 / 2003，包括）的纵向数据，其中包括311名女性和326名≥14岁的男性。各个固定效应面板线性回归用于估计从今天起未来1–7天内未来天气（平均小时温度和每日总降雨）对收集野生生物（猎物，鱼类和野生植物（不包括柴火））的概率的影响）和今天种植的农作物（一年生和多年生）。每日天气记录来自邻近Tsimane领土的城镇，觅食和耕种数据来自扫描（行为现场观察）以及在扫描过程中对研究参与者进行的调查。短期的未来天气（≤3天）影响了今天收集种植的农作物和野生动植物的可能性，尽管对今天收获的种植农作物的影响比今天对野生动植物的数量影响更大。 3天以后的未来天气与今天收获的农作物数量或今天收集的野生动植物数量都没有显着关系。在控制了未来和过去的天气之后，今天的天气（平均每小时温度，但没有下雨）影响了今天采集野生生物的可能性，但是今天的天气（温度或降雨）没有影响到今天采集的农作物的可能性。这项研究支持人类学家的先前工作，认为农村人口的预测准确。如果未来的天气影响到今天收割庄稼和收集野生动植物的可能性，则表明Tsimane的预报必须准确。我们讨论了该发现的可能原因。这项研究还支持来自低收入国家农村地区的越来越多的证据，即农村人民倾向于很好地保护自己的粮食生产和粮食消费，以免受到小型特质的冲击，或者在我们的情况下，不受极端天气的影响。但是，与今天的天气相比，每日觅食的产出比每日农业产出的响应性更高，这表明觅食可能无法保护食物消费以及农业免受不利的气候干扰。

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