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首页> 外文期刊>Vaccine >Optimal vaccine stockpile design for an eradicated disease: Application to polio
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Optimal vaccine stockpile design for an eradicated disease: Application to polio

机译：根除疾病的最佳疫苗储备设计：应用于脊髓灰质炎

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摘要

Eradication of a disease promises significant health and financial benefits. Preserving those benefits, hopefully in perpetuity, requires preparing for the possibility that the causal agent could re-emerge (unintentionally or intentionally). In the case of a vaccine-preventable disease, creation and planning for the use of a vaccine stockpile becomes a primary concern. Doing so requires consideration of the dynamics at different levels, including the stockpile supply chain and transmission of the causal agent. This paper develops a mathematical framework for determining the optimal management of a vaccine stockpile over time. We apply the framework to the polio vaccine stockpile for the post-eradication era and present examples of solutions to one possible framing of the optimization problem. We use the framework to discuss issues relevant to the development and use of the polio vaccine stockpile, including capacity constraints, production and filling delays, risks associated with the stockpile, dynamics and uncertainty of vaccine needs, issues of funding, location, and serotype dependent behavior, and the implications of likely changes over time that might occur. This framework serves as a helpful context for discussions and analyses related to the process of designing and maintaining a stockpile for an eradicated disease
机译：根除疾病有望带来重大的健康和经济利益。希望永久保留这些好处，需要为因果关系可能（无意或有意）重新出现的可能性做准备。在疫苗可预防疾病的情况下，创建和规划使用疫苗储备成为了主要问题。这样做需要考虑不同层次的动态，包括库存供应链和病原体的传播。本文建立了一个数学框架，用于确定随着时间的推移疫苗储备的最佳管理。我们将该框架应用于根除后时代的脊髓灰质炎疫苗库存，并提供了针对优化问题的一种可能框架的解决方案示例。我们使用该框架来讨论与脊髓灰质炎疫苗库存的开发和使用有关的问题，包括容量限制，生产和填充延迟，与库存有关的风险，疫苗需求的动态和不确定性，资金问题，位置和血清型依赖性行为以及可能随时间发生的变化的含义。该框架为与设计和维护已根除疾病的库存相关的讨论和分析提供了有益的环境

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