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El Nino prediction and predictability

机译：厄尔尼诺现象的预测和可预测性

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is by far the most energetic, and at present also the most predictable, short-term fluctuation in the Earth's climate system, though the limits of its predictability are still a subject of considerable debate. As a result of over two-decades of intensive observational, theoretical and modeling efforts, ENSO's basic dynamics is now well understood and its prediction has become a routine practice at application centers all over the world. The predictability of ENSO largely stems from the ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific and the low-dimensional nature of this coupled system. Present ENSO forecast models, in spite of their vast differences in complexity, exhibit comparable predictive skills, which seem to have hit a plateau at moderate level. However, mounting evidence suggests that there is still room for improvement. In particular, better model initialization and data assimilation, better simulation of surface heat and freshwater fluxes, and better representation of the relevant processes outside of the tropical Pacific, could all lead to improved ENSO forecasts. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）迄今为止是地球气候系统中最活跃的，也是目前最可预测的短期波动，尽管其可预测性的局限性仍是一个颇有争议的话题。经过二十多年的深入观察，理论和建模工作，如今ENSO的基本动力学已得到很好的理解，其预测已成为世界各地应用中心的常规操作。 ENSO的可预测性主要来自热带太平洋中的海-气相互作用以及该耦合系统的低维特征。当前的ENSO预测模型尽管复杂度差异很大，但仍具有可比的预测能力，似乎已达到中等水平。但是，越来越多的证据表明，仍有改进的空间。特别是，更好的模型初始化和数据同化，地表热量和淡水通量的更好模拟以及热带太平洋以外的相关过程的更好表示，都可以改善ENSO预报。 （c）2007 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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