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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Applied Meteorology >Use of Salt Lake City URBAN 2000 Field Data to Evaluate the Urban Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC) Dispersion Model
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Use of Salt Lake City URBAN 2000 Field Data to Evaluate the Urban Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC) Dispersion Model

机译：使用盐湖城URBAN 2000现场数据评估城市危害预测评估能力（HPAC）扩散模型

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摘要

After the terrorist incidents on 11 September 2001, there is a greatly heightened concern about the potential impacts of acts of terrorism involving the atmospheric release of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) materials in urban areas. In response to the need for an urban CBRN model, the Urban Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (Urban HPAC) transport and dispersion model has been developed. Because HPAC is widely used by the Department of Defense community for planning, training, and operational and tactical purposes, it is of great importance that the new model be adequately evaluated with urban datasets to demonstrate its accuracy. This paper describes evaluations of Urban HPAC using the 'URBAN 2000' urban tracer and meteorological field experiment data from Salt Lake City, Utah. Four Urban HPAC model configuration options and five plausible meteorological input data options-ranging from data-sparse to data-rich scenarios-were considered in the study, thus leading to a total of 20 possible model combinations. For the maximum concentrations along each sampling arc for each intensive operating period (IOP), the 20 Urban HPAC model combinations gave consistent mean overpredictions of about 50%, with a range over the 20 model combinations from no overprediction to a factor-of-4 overprediction in the mean. The median of the random scatter for the 20 model combinations was about a factor of 3 of the mean, with a range over the 20 model combinations between a factor of about 2 and 9. These performance measures satisfy previously established acceptance criteria for dispersion models.
机译：在2001年9月11日发生恐怖事件之后，人们极大地关注了涉及在城市地区向大气释放化学，生物，放射和核材料的恐怖主义行为的潜在影响。为了满足对城市CBRN模型的需求，已经开发了城市危害预测评估能力（Urban HPAC）运输和扩散模型。由于HPAC已被国防部社区广泛用于计划，培训以及作战和战术目的，因此使用城市数据集对新模型进行充分评估以证明其准确性非常重要。本文介绍了使用“ URBAN 2000”城市示踪剂和犹他州盐湖城的气象野外实验数据对城市HPAC进行的评估。在研究中考虑了四个城市HPAC模型配置选项和五个可行的气象输入数据选项（从数据稀疏到数据丰富的场景），因此总共有20种可能的模型组合。对于每个集约化运营期（IOP）沿每个采样弧的最大浓度，20种城市HPAC模型组合给出了约50％的一致平均高估，这20种模型组合的范围从无高估到4倍过度预测的意思。 20个模型组合的随机散布的中位数约为平均值的3倍，而20个模型组合的范围介于2到9之间。这些性能指标满足先前建立的色散模型接受标准。

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