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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Engineering Mechanics >Estimation of probabilistic extreme wind load effects: Combination of aerodynamic and wind climate data
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Estimation of probabilistic extreme wind load effects: Combination of aerodynamic and wind climate data

机译：估计概率极端风荷载效应：空气动力学和风气候数据的组合

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摘要

A refined full-order method is presented for estimating the extreme wind load effects of rigid structures with given mean recurrence intervals (MRIs) by combining the distributions of annual maximum wind speed and extreme load coefficients. This refined method is capable of dealing with any type of asymptotic extreme value distribution. With this full-order method, the predictions of wind load effects by using distributions of annual maximum wind velocity pressure and wind speed are compared that provide information on the sensitivity of predictions to the upper tail of wind speed distribution. The efficacy of the first-order method is examined. The influences of the type of distributions and the variations of annual maximum wind speed and extreme load coefficient on the predictions are quantified. Finally, the first- and full-order methods are extended to wind load effects of dynamically sensitive structures which facilitate a comprehensive probabilistic analysis as compared to the Monte Carlo simulation schemes used in literature. It is pointed out that 78% fractile extreme load coefficient can be used for defining the characteristic load effects of both rigid and dynamically sensitive structures. The wind load factor is insensitive to the variation of extreme load coefficient. It can be approximately estimated through the wind speed factor and the growth rate of extreme wind load effect with increasing wind speed. The result concerning the wind load factor justifies the advantage of specifying design wind speeds with various MRIs in reducing the uncertainties of design wind loading.
机译：通过结合年度最大风速和极端负荷系数的分布，提出了一种改进的全序法，用于估计具有给定平均重复间隔（MRI）的刚性结构的极端风负荷效应。这种改进的方法能够处理任何类型的渐近极值分布。通过这种全序方法，可以比较使用年度最大风速压力和风速分布的风荷载效应预测，从而提供有关风速分布的上尾部预测灵敏度的信息。检验了一阶方法的功效。定量分析了分布类型以及年最大风速和极端负荷系数的变化对预测的影响。最后，一阶和全阶方法扩展到动态敏感结构的风荷载效应，与文献中使用的蒙特卡洛模拟方案相比，这有助于进行全面的概率分析。需要指出的是，可以使用78％的分形极限载荷系数来定义刚性和动态敏感结构的特征载荷效应。风荷载因子对极限荷载系数的变化不敏感。可以通过风速因子和极端风荷载效应随风速增加的增长率来近似估算。有关风荷载系数的结果证明了使用各种MRI指定设计风速来减少设计风荷载的不确定性的优势。

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