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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology >On ecological fallacy, assessment errors stemming from misguided variable selection, and the effect of aggregation on the outcome of epidemiological study.
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On ecological fallacy, assessment errors stemming from misguided variable selection, and the effect of aggregation on the outcome of epidemiological study.

机译：在生态谬误上，评估错误源于误导的变量选择，以及聚集对流行病学研究结果的影响。

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In social and environmental sciences, ecological fallacy is an incorrect assumption about an individual based on aggregate data for a group. In the present study, the validity of this assumption was tested using both individual estimates of exposure to air pollution and aggregate data for 1,492 schoolchildren living in the in vicinity of a major coal-fired power station in the Hadera region of Israel. In 1996 and 1999, the children underwent subsequent pulmonary function tests (PFT), and their parents completed a detailed questionnaire on their health status and housing conditions. The association between children's PFT results and their exposure to air pollution was investigated in two phases. During the first phase, PFT averages were compared with average levels of air pollution detected in townships, and small census areas in which the children reside. During the second phase, individual pollution estimates were compared with individual PFT results, and pattern detection techniques (Getis-Ord statistic) were used to investigate the spatial data structure. While different levels of areal data aggregation changed the results only marginally, the choice of indices measuring the children's PFT performance had a significant influence on the outcome of the analysis. As argued, differences between individual-level and group-level effects of exposure (i.e., ecological or cross-level bias) are not necessary outcomes of data aggregation, and that seemingly unexpected results may often stem from a misguided selection of variables chosen to measure health effects. The implications of the results of the analysis for epidemiological studies are discussed, and recommendations for public health policy are formulated.
机译：在社会和环境科学中，基于一个群体的汇总数据，生态谬误是对一个人的错误假设。在本研究中，使用个人暴露于空气污染的估计数以及居住在以色列Hadera地区主要燃煤电站附近的1,492名学童的汇总数据，测试了该假设的有效性。在1996年和1999年，这些孩子接受了随后的肺功能检查（PFT），他们的父母完成了有关其健康状况和居住条件的详细调查表。分两个阶段研究了儿童PFT结果与他们暴露于空气污染之间的关联。在第一阶段，将PFT平均值与乡镇以及儿童居住的人口普查区检测到的平均空气污染水平进行比较。在第二阶段中，将个人污染估计值与个人PFT结果进行比较，并使用模式检测技术（Getis-Ord统计量）研究空间数据结构。虽然不同级别的区域数据聚合仅轻微地改变了结果，但是选择衡量儿童PFT表现的指标对分析结果有重大影响。正如所论证的，暴露的个体水平效应和群体水平效应（即生态或跨水平偏差）之间的差异并不是数据汇总的必要结果，而且看似出乎意料的结果通常可能是由于选择了错误选择的变量来衡量的对健康的影响。讨论了分析结果对流行病学研究的意义，并提出了公共卫生政策建议。

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