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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, D. Atmospheres: JGR >El Nino-Southern Oscillation–related principal interannual variability modes of early and late summer rainfall over East Asia in sea surface temperature-driven atmospheric general circulation model simulations
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El Nino-Southern Oscillation–related principal interannual variability modes of early and late summer rainfall over East Asia in sea surface temperature-driven atmospheric general circulation model simulations

机译：在海面温度驱动的大气总环流模型模拟中，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动相关的东亚初夏夏季降水的主要年际变化模式

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A large portion of interannual variability during early summer (May–June mean; hereinafter referred to as MJ) and late summer (July–August mean; hereinafter referred to as JA) rainfall over East Asia is dominated by El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Four ENSO-related modes have been identified by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition analysis on East Asian rainfall for the period 1980-1999, with EOF2 for MJ rainfall (hereinafter referred to as MJ-2; similar notations are used for other modes) corresponding to the developing phase of La Nina events, while MJ-3, JA-1, and JA-2 correspond to the decaying phase of El Nino events. The authors investigate the predictability of ENSO-related MJ and JA rainfall modes by analyzing the outputs of 12 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Phase II (AMIP II), which were run in an AGCM stand-alone mode and were forced by the monthly historical sea surface temperature (SST) from 1980 to 1999. The results show that although the climatological differences between MJ and JA rainfall are reasonably reproduced by most AGCMs, the four ENSO-related interannual variability modes of MJ and JA rainfall show different predictabilities. While both atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies associated with MJ-3 (the slow El Nino decaying mode) are reasonably reproduced by nearly all the models, the JA-1 (MJ-2) mode is only partly reproduced by about two thirds (half) of the AMIP II models. All models fail to reproduce the JA-2 mode. The relatively low skills in predicting both JA-1 and JA-2 modes are primarily due to the bias of the AMIP models in simulating both the intensity and the position of the western North Pacific anticyclone. The predictability of the JA-1 mode is slightly higher than that of JA-2, and the difference results from the stronger and longer persistence of SST anomaly (SSTA) forcing associated with the decaying ENSO events. The low skill of the MJ-2 prediction is due to the weak SSTA forcing associated with the developing phase of La Nina. The skills of the AMIP II models in predicting the leading interannual variability modes of East Asian summer rainfall do not depend on the horizontal resolutions of the models.
机译：东亚降雨在夏季初（5月至6月的平均值;以下简称MJ）和夏季末（7月至8月的平均值;以下简称JA）的大部分年际变化中，主要为厄尔尼诺现象-南方涛动（ENSO） ）事件。通过使用经验正交函数（EOF）分解分析，确定了1980-1999年东亚降水中的四种ENSO相关模式，其中EOF2用于MJ降水（以下简称MJ-2;其他模式使用类似的符号表示） ）对应于拉尼娜事件的发展阶段，而MJ-3，JA-1和JA-2对应于厄尔尼诺事件的衰减阶段。作者通过分析以AGCM独立模式运行的大气模型比对项目第二阶段（AMIP II）的12种大气总循环模型（AGCM）的输出，研究了ENSO相关的MJ和JA降雨模式的可预测性。结果表明，尽管大多数AGCM合理地再现了MJ和JA降雨的气候差异，但1980年至1999年的月平均历史海表温度（SST）迫使MJ和JA出现了四种与ENSO有关的年际变化模式。降雨显示出不同的可预测性。几乎所有模型都合理地再现了与MJ-3相关的大气环流和降水异常（慢厄尔尼诺现象衰减模式），而JA-1（MJ-2）模式仅部分再现了三分之二（一半）。 AMIP II模型。所有模型都无法重现JA-2模式。预测JA-1和JA-2模式的技能相对较低，主要是由于AMIP模型在模拟北太平洋反气旋的强度和位置方面存在偏见。 JA-1模式的可预测性比JA-2模式的可预测性稍高，其差异是由于与ENSO衰减事件相关的SST异常（SSTA）强迫的持续时间更长，更持久。 MJ-2预测的技巧低下是由于与La Nina发育阶段相关的SSTA强迫弱。 AMIP II模型在预测东亚夏季降雨的主要年际变化模式中的技能并不取决于模型的水平分辨率。

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