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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences >Trajectory modeling of aerosol clouds observed by TOMS
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Trajectory modeling of aerosol clouds observed by TOMS

机译：用TOMS观测气溶胶云的轨迹模型

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摘要

An aerosol trajectory model (ATM), which couples TOMS aerosol index (AI) measurements with multiple-level parcel trajectories, is presented for determining the three-dimensional (3-D) distribution of a tropospheric aerosol cloud. The ATM is illustrated with an idealized 2-D (height-longitude) cloud in linear vertical shear. The half width of the vertical parcel distribution (an indicator of how well the cloud is resolved) is inversely proportional to time and to vertical shear. The degree to which a cloud can be resolved is limited by an "uncertainty principle," whereby model precision improves with time, while accuracy degrades with time because of accumulating trajectory errors. ATM is applied to the ash cloud from the September 1992 eruption of Mount Spurr, Alaska. Disagreement in the predicted cloud structure occurs between 3-day ATM runs using United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) winds. This is due to significant differences in the UKMO and NCEP zonal wind speed near the tropopause, which cause large trajectory separations over 3 days. The UKMO-predicted cloud range (310-390 K) agrees well with radar and pilot observations of the ash cloud, while the NCEP-predicted range shows strong disagreement with observations in the region of the jet maximum. This indicates the potential (when independent observations are available) for using ATM to partially validate wind fields.
机译：提出了一种气溶胶轨迹模型（ATM），该模型将TOMS气溶胶指数（AI）测量值与多级包裹轨迹相结合，用于确定对流层气溶胶云的三维（3-D）分布。图示的ATM带有线性垂直切变的理想化2-D（高纬度）云。垂直宗地分布的一半宽度（指示云的溶解程度的指标）与时间和垂直剪切力成反比。云的可解析程度受“不确定性原理”限制，从而模型精度会随时间提高，而精度会随着时间的推移而下降，这是因为轨迹误差不断累积。从1992年9月阿拉斯加的芒特斯珀尔火山喷发以来，ATM就应用到了灰云中。在使用英国气象局（UKMO）和国家环境预测中心（NCEP）风进行的3天自动柜员机运行之间，预测的云结构发生了分歧。这是由于对流层顶附近UKMO和NCEP纬向风速存在显着差异，这导致3天内出现较大的轨迹间隔。 UKMO预测的云范围（310-390 K）与灰云的雷达和飞行员观测结果非常吻合，而NCEP预测的范围与最大射流区域的观测结果存在很大差异。这表明使用ATM来部分验证风场的潜力（如果有独立的观测结果）。

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