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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydrology >Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Apalachicola River basin, Florida
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Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Apalachicola River basin, Florida

机译：佛罗里达州阿巴拉契科拉河流域的气候变化影响和极端降雨事件的不确定性分析

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Climate change impact on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves at the Apalachicola River basin (Florida Panhandle coast) is assessed using an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. The suitability of seven RCMs on simulating temporal variation of rainfall at the fine-scale is assessed for the case study region. Two RCMs, HRM3-HADCM3 and RCM3-GFDL, are found to have good skill scores in generating high intensity events at the mid-afternoon (2:00-4:00 PM). These two RCMs are selected for assessing potential climate change impact on IDF curves. Two methods are used to conduct bias correction on future rainfall IDF curves, i.e., maximum intensity percentile-based method, and sequential bias correction and maximum intensity percentile-based method. Based on the projection by HRM3-HADCM3, there is no significant change in rainfall intensity at the upstream and middle stream stations but higher intensity at the downstream station. RCM3-GFDL projected increased rainfall intensity from upstream to downstream, particularly at the downstream. The potential temporal shift of extreme rainfall events coupled with overall increased intensities may exacerbate flood magnitudes and lead to increased sediment and nutrient loadings to the estuary, especially in light of sea level change.
机译：气候变化对Apalachicola流域（佛罗里达潘汉德尔海岸）降雨强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线的影响，是使用从北美区域气候变化评估计划获得的区域气候模型（RCM）集合进行评估的。对于案例研究区域，评估了七个RCM在细尺度上模拟降雨的时间变化的适用性。发现两个RCM（HRM3-HADCM3和RCM3-GFDL）在下午中午（2：00-4：00 PM）产生高强度事件时具有良好的技能得分。选择这两个RCM来评估潜在的气候变化对IDF曲线的影响。有两种方法可以对未来的降雨IDF曲线进行偏差校正，即基于最大强度百分位数的方法，顺序偏差校正和基于最大强度百分位数的方法。根据HRM3-HADCM3的预测，上游和中游站的降雨强度没有显着变化，而下游站的降雨强度较高​​。 RCM3-GFDL预测从上游到下游，特别是在下游，降雨强度会增加。极端降雨事件的潜在时间变化以及总体强度的增加可能加剧洪水的强度，并导致河口的沉积物和养分含量增加，尤其是在海平面变化的情况下。

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