Global warming will have direct impacts on regional water resources by accelerating the hydrological cycle. Hydrological simulation is an important approach to studying climate change impacts. In this paper, a snowmelt-based water balance model (SWBM) was used to simulate the effect of climate change on runoffin the Kuye River catchment of the Loess Plateau, China. Results indicated that the SWBM is suitable for simulating monthly discharge into arid catchments. The response of runoffin the Kuye River catchment to climate change is nonlinear, and runoffis more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to changes in temperature. The projections indicated that the Kuye River catchment would undergo more flooding in the 2020s, and global warming would probably shorten the main flood season in the catchment, with greater discharge occurring in August. Although projected changes in annual runoffare uncertain, the possibilities of regional water shortages and regional flooding are essential issues that need to be fully considered.
展开▼
