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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts via Stochastic Downscaling
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Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts via Stochastic Downscaling

机译：通过随机降尺度验证定量降水预报

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摘要

The use of dense networks of rain gauges to verify the skill of quantitative numerical precipitation forecasts requires bridging the scale gap between the finite resolution of the forecast fields and the point measurements provided by each gauge. This is usually achieved either by interpolating the numerical forecasts to the rain gauge positions, or by upscaling the rain gauge measurements by averaging techniques. Both approaches are affected by uncertainties and sampling errors due to the limited density of most rain gauge networks and to the high spatiotemporal variability of precipitation. For this reason, an estimate of the sampling errors is crucial for obtaining a meaningful comparison. This work presents the application of a stochastic rainfall downscaling technique that allows a quantitative comparison between numerical forecasts and rain gauge measurements, in both downscaling and upscaling approaches, and allows a quantitative assessment of the significance of the results of the verification procedure.
机译：使用密集的雨量计网络来验证定量降水预报的技巧需要弥合预报场的有限分辨率与每个雨量计提供的点测量之间的比例差距。通常可以通过将数值预报插值到雨量计的位置，或者通过平均技术来扩大雨量计的测量值来实现。由于大多数雨量计网络的密度有限以及降水的高时空变化，两种方法都受到不确定性和采样误差的影响。因此，采样误差的估计对于获得有意义的比较至关重要。这项工作介绍了一种随机降雨降尺度技术的应用，该技术可以在降尺度和升尺度方法中对数值预报和雨量计测量值之间进行定量比较，并可以对验证程序结果的重要性进行定量评估。

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