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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of marine systems: journal of the European Association of Marine Sciences and Techniques >Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: A model study
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Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: A model study

机译：在当前和未来气候中北海，斯卡格拉克，卡特加特海域和波罗的海的富营养化状况：一个模型研究

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A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models has been used to assess eutrophication. Using downscaled forcing from two GCMs under the A1B emission scenario, an assessment of the eutrophication statuswas made for a control (1970-2000) and a future climate (2070-2100) period. By using validation results from a hindcast to compute individual weights between the models, an assessment of eutrophication is done using a set of threshold values. The final classification distinguishes between three categories: problem area, potential problem area, and non-problem area, in accordance with current management practice as suggested by the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). For the control run the assessment indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. In the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in eutrophication status in the projected future climate.
机译：结合观察和生态模型集成的方法已用于评估富营养化。在A1B排放情景下，使用来自两个GCM的缩小强迫，对控制期（1970-2000）和未来气候（2070-2100）的富营养化状况进行了评估。通过使用后生动物的验证结果计算模型之间的权重，使用一组阈值对富营养化进行评估。最终分类根据奥斯陆和巴黎委员会（OSPAR）和赫尔辛基委员会（HELCOM）提出的当前管理实践，将问题区域，潜在问题区域和非问题区域分为三类。对于控制运行，评估表明，卡特加特海峡，丹麦海峡，芬兰湾，哥得兰海盆地以及阿科纳盆地，博恩霍尔姆盆地和波罗的海地区的主要部分都可以归类为问题地区。北海的主要部分以及斯卡格拉克地区都是无问题地区，而博特尼亚湾，里加湾和北海整个东南部沿海地区的主要部分都可以归类为潜在问题地区。在未来的气候情景中，波罗的海以前的大多数潜在问题区域已成为问题区域，除了波恩尼亚湾（Bothnian Bay）的情况基本保持不变。在北海，预计的未来气候中的富营养化状况似乎没有明显变化。

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